LOS ANGELES 2025, MOTHER OF ALL WILD FIRES
A fire prone region, a drought, La Nina winter weather,, a cold air outbreak, a teenager’s New Years Eve “pot party” in the woods, illegal fireworks, a small fire erupts, duly snuffed out by the LA FD, and a week later, fierce 90 mph Sant’Anna winds reignite the undetected cinders. These events all horribly compounded and extended by WOKE DEI ideology, misplaced priorities, one party rule, local political hubris, human frailty, poor planning, incompetent and missing bureaucrats and human stupidity.
The Los Angeles Pacific Palisades fire, has become the penultimate (we hope) disaster of the Biden, disaster-plagued administration. This terrible ecologic and human tragedy is a result of governmental failure resulting from misplaced priorities, one party rule, self righteousness, and stupidity coupled with predictable natural weather, geography and native floristic phenomena which culminated in a cataclysmic firestorm without historic precedent.
The apocalyptic conflagrations in Los Angeles appears to have started in the Pacific Palisades section of that city on January 7, 2025. An extensive investigation by the WAPO newspaper appears to indite the activities of a New Year’s Eve teenage “pot party” in the bone dry woods of the Pacific Palisades section of Los Angeles, where fireworks may have ignited La Nina weather dry forest litter. That fire was reported and duly responded to by the LA FD. They reported an area of about 3-8acres in flames. They effectively contained and extinguished that small fire on Jan 1, 2025.
A week later, as a result of winter La Nina weather patterns, i.e. a cold dry outbreak of air which settled into the Great Basin and generated an unseasonably powerful Sant’Anna wind. The high winds impacted the region on January 7, 2025 causing the week-earlier Palisades New Year’s Eve fire-site to reignite.
Reigniting is a serious problem in very windy locations. (Fires can smolder under soil litter, dead leaves, or in soil humus layer ;organic top layer of soil), and in dry punky wood for weeks). The LA FD does not maintain patrols on past fire sites. But a week later the winds were so severe (60-90 mph) smoldering cinders appear to have come to life, flames sprouted and fire spread so rapidly that containment with the available man power and mechanical assets was fruitless and the Pacific Palisades fire spread rapidly.
The result: Los Angeles’ strikingly intense, very hot fires burned 40,000 acres to cinders, 12,000 frame structures were totally consumed by extremely hot fires leaving only twisted metal and seared and collapsed concrete and brick as indicators where structures formerly stood,, 150,000 people had to be evacuated, and sadly 25 people lost their lives in the conflagration.
Wells Fargo estimated damages and economic loss at about or as much as$130 billion or as little as $60 billion.
Three fires have plagued the City since January 7, 2025. The first and largest is the Pacific Palisades fire on the west end of the LA County. Fifteen miles to the NE is the Eaton Fire. Then to northwest near Pasadena is the smaller Hurst Fire north of San Fernando which has consumed 14000 acres and burned 7,000 structures.
But what makes the naturally wooded region of southern California, so “fire prone”.
The climate of LA and Southern California is classed as “Mediterranean” characterized by hot dry summers and mild wet winters. (Though during La Nina weather, winters are colder and dry.) The vegetation adapted to this climate is described as “chaparral” a biome which supports plants adapted to dry hot conditions and low-moisture soils. “Chaparral vegetation is defined as being comprised of low growing shrubs with leathery, drought resistant waxy leaves that often form near-impenetrable thickets.”
The common plants of California chaparral are manzanita, acacia, juniper, and shrub-live-oaks. Juniper and oaks are well known and occur widely, but manzanita and acacia are pllants found more commonly in the west and Mexico. Manzanita is an evergreen bush-or low tree of the Heath Family with small red edible fruit with twisted red-barked branches. The bark readily peels away to form loose red strips and burns easily. “Manzanita” in Spanish means “little apple”. Acacia is a low growing shrub or small tree with compound leaves and is a member of the pea (Fabacea) family. It has bean-like fruits which are edible and it branches are well supplied with thorns.
All of these chaparral species are drought resistant, often with leathery, waxy leaves ( to conserve moisture). These species are associated with associated chaparral species with similar adaptations to drought and low soil moisture which typically form low, dense thickets. This pattern of growth in low growing closely spaced thickets are also a natural adaptation which aids in the conservation of plant and soil moisture.
These drought adaptations, however, also make this biome highly susceptible to wild fires. In fact archeological studies and historic accounts indicate that wild fires were during the distant past common in this area.
In addition their growth pattern, close to the ground in dense thickets, and their waxy leaves and often dry peeling bark which typically have a lower ignition temperature increase susceptibility to wild fires. Such chaparral thickets flare up in towering flames in seconds as a hot wind with flying embers descends on them.
When chaparral achieves ignition temperature—their finely divided character (leaves, thin branches and fine twigs) with increased surface area in contact with air in the thicket can ignite, instantly combining the finely divided fuel with the surrounding oxygen in the air to oxidize the mass of wood and leaves into heat and gases to generate an almost explosive flaming inferno. See examples of “dust explosions”. These near dust explosions are intensely hot. They then can ignite other surfaces anx materials near by, automobiles, which then add to the exponentially increasing conflagration.
In the chaparral biome unlike a mid-latitude forests there are no large masses of solid wood fuel, which require higher temperatures and longer periods of heating to ignite. The species of trees and understory vegetation in California at high elevations (and mid latitude forests) typically have 2 to 3 foot diameter tree trunks and large branches which take long periods of high temperature to heat to ignition levels.
Chaparral on the other hand is a finely divided, dry wax-leaved fuel, surrounded by oxygen laden air, forming an almost explosive mixture of low ignition temperature fuel and hot air. (Viz “dust explosions”).
For this reason, so called “controlled burns” to reduce fuel levels may not be practical solutions in Chaparral biome dominated areas. Though in more typical forests at higher elevations where controlled ground fires can safely burn downed tree limbs and understory vegetation, such policies can help reduce incidence of very hot fires.
What about the strong winds? The dry air? The Sant’Anna Winds?
These wild fire-generating meteorological phenomena are related to weather, climate and geography.
Los Angeles is located on the west coast, parts of which are at or near sea level. But as one travels east, the topography becomes mountainous rising over a series of roughly north south mountain ranges such as the Coast Ranges, Panamint Range and a southern extension of the Sierra Nevada. (While the San Gabriel Mts are part of the “transverse range” which trend east west).
Continuing east over these coastal ranges and the higher Sierra Nevada one enters into a physigraphic province known as the Great Basin (GB), the base of which has an average elevation of about 4000 feet above sea level. The GB is surrounded by other high mountain ranges (it is an actual enclosed “basin”).
The only outlet for cold air trapped in the GB is in the southwest, where air can descend from its 4000 foot base level, flow through and over the Costal Ranges and into the Los Angeles physiographic basin.
Since the flowing air is forced to channel through narrow valleys surrounding Los Angeles where, (based on the Bernoulli principle,) aid flow compressed into a narrow channel speeds up and can reach hurricane force levels (74 mph) and higher (some have been reported at 90 mph)
In January* winter weather patterns often carry very cold masses of dry air into the Great Basin. Typical January average low temperatures hover around 15F, with daily highs at about 39F. These cold air masses are also low in Relative Humidity which is a measure of how close air is to saturation of water vapor. RH in January varies but thpical cold dry air has RH values often at around 66% .
*It is notable that weather of January2025 was affected by la Nina “weather” which tends to bring colder drier weather outbreaks to the Great Basin in Nevada.
In this process of air flowing from higher regions to lower levels air is compressed by the increase in overlying layers. Compression causes air to heat up according to standard gas laws (PV=nRT). (Recall how a bicycle pump heats up as one pumps (compresses) air into a bicycle tire.) As a result, for each 1000 foot descent, air heats up by about 3.5deg F. Significantly, as air heats up its RH (humidity) decreases. Thus, GB air which starts out as a cold low humidity air mass to begin with, dries out significantly as it passes over interceding mountain ranges then descends into the LA basin.
A mass of cold GB air descending into the Los Angeles Basin would have passed over several mountain ranges, losing moisture and heating as it descended. Air at a 39F day-time GB temperature, descending from 4000 feet to sea level, would heat up by (3.5x4= 14F) 14 F degrees, arriving at the LA Basin 14 degrees warmer or (39F+14F =53F) at 53 F but its RH of 66% would have been drastically reduced .
On its passage this now warmer dry air is forced to flow through narrow steep sided east west valleys and canyons where wind speeds increase (Bernoulli Effect) at times to hurricane force levels.
All that is needed under these circumstances is a spark from a toppled power-line, a careless smoker tossing a lit cigarette butt, or a still smoldering week old fire, the result of inebriated teenagers “year-end” celebrations coaxed back to life by powerful winds!