Black Walnuts seed dispersal. Hard, impact and decay resistant spheroidal fruits (drupes) like those of the Black Walnut (Juglans niger) can roll long distances from its parent tree and this process may be an important factor in its seed dispersal.
An ancient and much-admired Black Walnut (Juglans niger) tree grows not far from my home on Long Island’s north shore. At this time of the year (late October of 2017) the near baseball-size green spherical seeds (known as a “drupe” in botany) hang heavily from the tree like big green Christmas ornaments After every windstorm many fall to the ground and roll away from the drip line of the tree, many often accumulating in in long “windrows” in depressions downslope from the tree. In areas with steep slopes where this species grows, I have observed the green dupes roll tens of meters from the base of the tree. In one instance accumulating in an intermittent stream bed, then to be presumably washed down stream during a heavy rainfall.
Simple rolling downhill, under the influence of gravity seems a natural means of seed dispersal for this species, but one which seems little discussed by ecologists and botanists who study this species.
The green husk of the fruit is very tough and thick, as anyone knows who has attempted to get at the very nutritious and tasty nut-meats inside the shell. The drupe is hard as a baseball and resists deformation when it hits the ground even from great heights. The green thick husk is impregnated with a strong herby smelling substance ( I find it pleasant) that appears to slow the decay process. However, when decay does take place, the partly decayed darkened husks will stain your hands a near-]permanent brown color. I have heard from old timers that this (decayed husk) substance was used as a staining agent and mordant (a substance which will combine with a dye and fix it permanently in a fabric —or on your skin) by our local colonists. Local woodlore claims that black walnut husks were used to make a brown fabric dye, a permanent ink, and even to dye the graying hair of early colonists. As a consequence of the sturdy physical character and decay-resistant chemical substances in the husk, the drupes tend to resist deformation, biological decay and physical abrasion and remain in their original sphere-like shape over a long time, enabling it to continue to roll over relatively long periods of time, encouraging its movement from its parent tree.
An old timer I knew with a great store of wood lore and a powerful desire and taste for walnut meats used an interesting technique to remove the tough husks. He secured a two-foot square piece of 3/4 thick exterior plywood in which he drilled a walnut-sized hole in the center. He placed the plywood square on top of a sturdy metal pail (or an empty ten gallon plastic paint pail) and setting the green-husked drupe on the slightly smaller drilled hole, he struck the green orb with a heavy mallet. The walnut passed through the hole into the pail while the green husks remained on the outside. He wore heavy gloves to protect his hands.
When I admired this technique he remarked that it was a great improvement over his original system which was simply stomping the partly decayed drupes on the asphalt surface of his driveway.
I often wondered how these huge seeds were dispersed. The most common explanation is that they are commonly eaten by our local Gray Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) These arboreal rodents ( as well as Sciurus niger the Fox Squirrel) are known to practice a hoarding system in which they bury the drupes. The fruits are collected and carried away from the tree by the squirrels and buried in scattered locations to protect their nutritious hoard from the depredations of other squirrels. Some of the buried fruits of course are lost or never recovered and thus sprout into new trees at some distance from the parent tree.
I am certain that this is a major means of seed dispersal for this species. I have seen grays eating the dehusked walnuts and often find the fragments of opened nuts at squirrel feeding posts on the tops of large boulders or tree stumps. I also observed others carrying the big heavy drupes in their jaws.
But here I suggest that another method of seed dispersal for the Black Walnut is simple rolling. The spherical drupe of the black walnut can roll long distances away from its origin simply by the near universal fact of topographic slope and gravity. This “seed” is almost perfectly adapted to moving over the earth’s surface on even gentle slopes, and to remain intact as a sphere and continue that motion over relatively long periods of time during the fall season. I suggest that even in the absence of rodents the tree would continue to effectively disperse its seeds based on the spherical nature of its seed.
Thursday, October 19, 2017
Monday, October 9, 2017
DUMB DEAL DECERTIFYING IRAN-ENCOURAGES NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION
I have listened with patience and diminishing hopefulness to the President's bluster and bombast—on many issues. The President has the gift of being able to put his finger on issues like “the wall”, the need for immigration control, bad trade deals, misguided regulations that are in need of action. He has also had the insight to encourage efforts to bring back jobs to America, efforts to help the working classes so long ignored by both parties.
But on this issue of Iran, where the situation in the ME has been stabilized and generally peaceful, the President has gone off the reservation. Why stir the pot there, when we have a real existential threat on the opposite side of the world,,,North Korea?y
His threat to "decertify" the Iran deal is simply STUPID. It creates exactly the wrong effect. It encourages nuclear proliferation. If no “rogue nation” could ever expect to “make a deal” with the USA that sticks THEIR OONLY OPTION FOR SURVIVAL IS A NUCLEAR ARSENAL!
The President’s threat of decertfying is first of all...it is only a showman's stunt. Decertification will not "undo the deal" as he naively and foolishly promised on the campaign stump. The actual effect of his decision to decertify (really not necessary on his part) is only to dump the decision-making-process of maintaining the agreement into the hands of the Congressional clowns. Who knows what that diverse and wild group will do with it? Perhaps they will pull out of the deal...as some of the war-mongers and neocons so fervently hope. Perhaps they will draw up other more aggressive sanctions on Iran. It is possible that they will simply agree that— like Obamacare....we are better with what we have —a stable agreement—than what the GOP and Trump are likely to give us.
In this action Trump is foolishly giving away his executive authority to the unpredictable mob in Congress. That does not seem like a smart move for our self professed "negotiator in chief". Would he pass on the right to compose the specifics of a contract to buy a Manhattan apartment building to the disgruntled tenants of the place? Not likely. But that is what he is doing here---putting a decision making process which the Constitution reserves for the chief executive—the one person at the head of the government who should be looking out for the well-being of the entire nation—putting that decision into the hands of a mob.
The Founders would be aghast.
Furthermore, the entire world, our own military and our intelligence services are all in agreement that Iran has complied with the tenets of this document. When we decertify and attempt to change the document we are in noncompliance. Is that how we want to be perceived?
Also this international deal was a group effort. The USA as well as the nations of Russia, Germany, France, Britain and China were all signatories with Iran. They all agreed to it. Do we want to betray them all, signifying that we are not a nation that can be trusted to comply with international order? Decertifying will certainly sully our reputation for the foreseeable future—with Trump as our President. Other international agreements in need of cooperation from the major powers—perhaps in regard to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal— will be—after this— very difficult to implement. This is indeed a very stupid short sighted movie.
Finally, the international sanctions which actually brought Iran to the table worked because we had the cooperation of these five nations as well as the wider community of nations. Any additional sanctions we impose on Iran will be only those we impose. We can be certain the we would no longer have the cooperation of Russia, or China...it is unlikely that Germany or France would join us as deal breakers.
Or is this bluster of Trump just a way of moving attention away form North Korea...a nation which now has nuclear weapons and is difficult or-impossible to control...to change the subject to Iran which is a still non nuclear and unarmed?
That would be really dangerous and dumb.
But on this issue of Iran, where the situation in the ME has been stabilized and generally peaceful, the President has gone off the reservation. Why stir the pot there, when we have a real existential threat on the opposite side of the world,,,North Korea?y
His threat to "decertify" the Iran deal is simply STUPID. It creates exactly the wrong effect. It encourages nuclear proliferation. If no “rogue nation” could ever expect to “make a deal” with the USA that sticks THEIR OONLY OPTION FOR SURVIVAL IS A NUCLEAR ARSENAL!
The President’s threat of decertfying is first of all...it is only a showman's stunt. Decertification will not "undo the deal" as he naively and foolishly promised on the campaign stump. The actual effect of his decision to decertify (really not necessary on his part) is only to dump the decision-making-process of maintaining the agreement into the hands of the Congressional clowns. Who knows what that diverse and wild group will do with it? Perhaps they will pull out of the deal...as some of the war-mongers and neocons so fervently hope. Perhaps they will draw up other more aggressive sanctions on Iran. It is possible that they will simply agree that— like Obamacare....we are better with what we have —a stable agreement—than what the GOP and Trump are likely to give us.
In this action Trump is foolishly giving away his executive authority to the unpredictable mob in Congress. That does not seem like a smart move for our self professed "negotiator in chief". Would he pass on the right to compose the specifics of a contract to buy a Manhattan apartment building to the disgruntled tenants of the place? Not likely. But that is what he is doing here---putting a decision making process which the Constitution reserves for the chief executive—the one person at the head of the government who should be looking out for the well-being of the entire nation—putting that decision into the hands of a mob.
The Founders would be aghast.
Furthermore, the entire world, our own military and our intelligence services are all in agreement that Iran has complied with the tenets of this document. When we decertify and attempt to change the document we are in noncompliance. Is that how we want to be perceived?
Also this international deal was a group effort. The USA as well as the nations of Russia, Germany, France, Britain and China were all signatories with Iran. They all agreed to it. Do we want to betray them all, signifying that we are not a nation that can be trusted to comply with international order? Decertifying will certainly sully our reputation for the foreseeable future—with Trump as our President. Other international agreements in need of cooperation from the major powers—perhaps in regard to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal— will be—after this— very difficult to implement. This is indeed a very stupid short sighted movie.
Finally, the international sanctions which actually brought Iran to the table worked because we had the cooperation of these five nations as well as the wider community of nations. Any additional sanctions we impose on Iran will be only those we impose. We can be certain the we would no longer have the cooperation of Russia, or China...it is unlikely that Germany or France would join us as deal breakers.
Or is this bluster of Trump just a way of moving attention away form North Korea...a nation which now has nuclear weapons and is difficult or-impossible to control...to change the subject to Iran which is a still non nuclear and unarmed?
That would be really dangerous and dumb.
Sunday, October 8, 2017
HOW TO HELP PR ECONOMY
How to help Puerto Rico?
The hard working and decent people of Puerto Rico deserve every effort to help them recover from the awful devastation of hurricane Maria.
Some thoughts on how we might proceed.
First we must reduce the Puerto Rican debt burden..Investors in PR bonds and other financial instruments will have to forgive much of the $70 billion in loans the government has accumulated. Prior to the hurricane it was impossible for the commonwealth of three million islanders to pay back such a burden given their economic situation--after the devastation of hurricane Maria it is unthinkable. The island’s infrastructure and economy are in tatters. There can be no thought of full repayment. But neither should the burden of loss be shunted onto the shoulders of mainland taxpayers for repayment. Well meaning financial help for aid for infrastructure repair should not be funneled from the PR government into the coffers of Wall Street investors. The investors themselves must take responsibility and the loss for their failed investments.
Then Congress and the Trump Administration must make it more appealing for industry to return to the island. Years back before the impact of globalization and the drain of jobs to Mexico and China, the island was a good place to establish a business. In those days Puerto Rico had a deal with Washington. Companies which located on the island got a tax break.. That good deal was rescinded during the Clinton or Bush Administrations---for some unknown reason. That was too bad. It should be restored.
Also some of the rules and regulations which apply to US states are simply wrong or out of place on a tropical island situated in the balmy Caribbean. The USA minimum wage law is one of these. The cost of living on the island is generally lower than on the mainland USA (although most food is imported and manufactured goods cost more due to transportation costs). These lower living costs should be reflected in lower wages--a fact that would be an advantage to the PR economy. Forcing companies to pay USA standard minimum wages to island workers has eliminated one of the key advantages that tendered to attract manufacturing firms to the island. This fact (with others noted below) are one important reason why the unemployment rate is so high--about 12%---in Puerto Rico.
Like Greece...which was economically disadvantaged by having to use the high value Euro as its currency, PR is similarly saddled with the US dollar. The dollar is a high value currency, the value of which is set in Washington. The island government can not alter the value of its money to attract business or adjust to economic circumstances. There seems no obvious direct solution to that problem. Though tax breaks and other economic stimuli may be the answer. But it does shed some light on the source of economic problems the island faces.
Then there is the "Jones Act" which prohibits foreign flagged (non USA ships) from docking in PR ports. The result of this law is that all goods entering or leaving PR have additional transport costs. For example, manufactured goods bound for PR and imported from say Japan or Canada must first land in a US port..perhaps Jacksonville FL, where the products are off loaded, repackaged and reloaded on an American flagged ship for transit to Puerto Rico. These add significant costs to the price of goods, and contribute to the higher costs for imported products in PR vs the mainland. In like manner, products manufactured on the island must also be first trans-shipped from PR by an American ship before they can actually be sent abroad....adding to their costs. and as a result making PR manufactured goods less competitive than materials produced on the mainland. These US policies have contributed immensely to the decline of the economy on the island and have discouraged companies from locating there.
Finally, Puerto Rico suffers from a brain drain and youth drain. The population is aging faster than it should, due to rampant out-migration. Young people in the prime of their productive lives leave the island for better jobs, and other attractions on the mainland. That leaves a smaller and older, less productive population to shoulder the tax burdens needed to sustain the economy and infrastructure of the island.
In this last matter only Puerto Ricans can change the status quo.
The hard working and decent people of Puerto Rico deserve every effort to help them recover from the awful devastation of hurricane Maria.
Some thoughts on how we might proceed.
First we must reduce the Puerto Rican debt burden..Investors in PR bonds and other financial instruments will have to forgive much of the $70 billion in loans the government has accumulated. Prior to the hurricane it was impossible for the commonwealth of three million islanders to pay back such a burden given their economic situation--after the devastation of hurricane Maria it is unthinkable. The island’s infrastructure and economy are in tatters. There can be no thought of full repayment. But neither should the burden of loss be shunted onto the shoulders of mainland taxpayers for repayment. Well meaning financial help for aid for infrastructure repair should not be funneled from the PR government into the coffers of Wall Street investors. The investors themselves must take responsibility and the loss for their failed investments.
Then Congress and the Trump Administration must make it more appealing for industry to return to the island. Years back before the impact of globalization and the drain of jobs to Mexico and China, the island was a good place to establish a business. In those days Puerto Rico had a deal with Washington. Companies which located on the island got a tax break.. That good deal was rescinded during the Clinton or Bush Administrations---for some unknown reason. That was too bad. It should be restored.
Also some of the rules and regulations which apply to US states are simply wrong or out of place on a tropical island situated in the balmy Caribbean. The USA minimum wage law is one of these. The cost of living on the island is generally lower than on the mainland USA (although most food is imported and manufactured goods cost more due to transportation costs). These lower living costs should be reflected in lower wages--a fact that would be an advantage to the PR economy. Forcing companies to pay USA standard minimum wages to island workers has eliminated one of the key advantages that tendered to attract manufacturing firms to the island. This fact (with others noted below) are one important reason why the unemployment rate is so high--about 12%---in Puerto Rico.
Like Greece...which was economically disadvantaged by having to use the high value Euro as its currency, PR is similarly saddled with the US dollar. The dollar is a high value currency, the value of which is set in Washington. The island government can not alter the value of its money to attract business or adjust to economic circumstances. There seems no obvious direct solution to that problem. Though tax breaks and other economic stimuli may be the answer. But it does shed some light on the source of economic problems the island faces.
Then there is the "Jones Act" which prohibits foreign flagged (non USA ships) from docking in PR ports. The result of this law is that all goods entering or leaving PR have additional transport costs. For example, manufactured goods bound for PR and imported from say Japan or Canada must first land in a US port..perhaps Jacksonville FL, where the products are off loaded, repackaged and reloaded on an American flagged ship for transit to Puerto Rico. These add significant costs to the price of goods, and contribute to the higher costs for imported products in PR vs the mainland. In like manner, products manufactured on the island must also be first trans-shipped from PR by an American ship before they can actually be sent abroad....adding to their costs. and as a result making PR manufactured goods less competitive than materials produced on the mainland. These US policies have contributed immensely to the decline of the economy on the island and have discouraged companies from locating there.
Finally, Puerto Rico suffers from a brain drain and youth drain. The population is aging faster than it should, due to rampant out-migration. Young people in the prime of their productive lives leave the island for better jobs, and other attractions on the mainland. That leaves a smaller and older, less productive population to shoulder the tax burdens needed to sustain the economy and infrastructure of the island.
In this last matter only Puerto Ricans can change the status quo.
Friday, October 6, 2017
TRUMP CORRECT: WALL STREET MUST TAKE HAIRCUT ON BAD LOANS TO PR
ON THE PLIGHT OF PUERTO RICO, WALL STREET AND BAD LOANS
DO NOT HELP PAY OFF BAD WALL STREET LOANS WITH US TAX DOLLARS
The President was right- when he said after his visit to hurricane devastate Puerto Rico: "Wall Street bankers and investors will have to take a "hair cut" on their Puerto Rican investments." This off-the-cuff statement caused hurricane-like waves in the canyons of lower Manhattan, where accepting less than full return on a loan is considered "obscene" speech and is the only verbiage universally condemned and disdained. These 'obscene" musings of our businessman-president were immediately criticized. But for the rest of us taxpayers, they should be taken very seriously and accepted as fact.
This is what must have gone through Mr. Trump's business-oriented mind, He reasoned this way: how could the PR Commonwealth (a long-time territory of the USA) with an approximately $100 billion dollar GDP, annual revenue (2010) of $31 billion and expenses (2010) of $29 billion, with 12% of its work force unemployed, and a foundering economy---which also owes Wall Street investors about $70 billion dollars in loans (which even prior to Maria the island was struggling to pay back) make good on these outstanding debts? The outcome was uncertain then. But NOW after Maria leveled the island, causing massive destruction to its fragile infrastructure--estimated by many as amounting to $90 billion dollars--any ability to repay those loans evaporated like morning dew on a dangling, red-dappled mango hanging from a tree over a sun-drenched cobbled street in old San Juan.
The devastation of Maria should not change these facts. Wall Street banks and investors took a risk when they accepted the government of Puerto Rico as a debtor. They assumed they would get the seventy billion dollar principle of the loan amount back, plus a sizable profit. This profit was carefully calculated by their accountants and attorneys to be commensurate with the risk they were taking. Risk-taking is why investors make a profit on the money they lend. But in the case of Puerto Rico--obviously the bankers did not do their required "due diligence". They did not take into account--status of the tropical island workforce, their ability to pay, globalization effects, the high costs of living in PR, and the effects of man-induced weather intensification (climate change). The "haircut' that the banks are due...is all their own responsibility. There is no good reason why we should underwrite their miscalculations regarding these loans. That after-all is what risk taking and profit generation are all about.
The banks will have to take a haircut. We should not let them attempt to pass off those bad loans on to the American taxpayer.
NO MONEY TO PAY BACK INVESTORS SHOULD BE TAKEN FROM USA TAX FUNDS
So what can the rest of us do. Let us first say what we should not do. We can not hand out federal money to the PR government to solve their CASH FLOW problem. Money is fungible.
WE TO DO THAT IT would be equivalent to taking tax dollars OUT OF the pockets of Joe and Jane in Wisconsin and handing it over to Jose and Anna in Ponce--who WILL PASS ON THESE FUNDS as loan repayment into the coffers of the Wall Street investors.
In effect pouring hard earned US taxpayer's dollars into the full coffers of the banks in lower Manhattan.
In terms of what we should do--after the bakers agree to accept a reasonable return on their loans.
We should make every effort to help the decent hardworking people of Puerto Rico rebuild after the devastation of Maria.
But that is another blog.
DO NOT HELP PAY OFF BAD WALL STREET LOANS WITH US TAX DOLLARS
The President was right- when he said after his visit to hurricane devastate Puerto Rico: "Wall Street bankers and investors will have to take a "hair cut" on their Puerto Rican investments." This off-the-cuff statement caused hurricane-like waves in the canyons of lower Manhattan, where accepting less than full return on a loan is considered "obscene" speech and is the only verbiage universally condemned and disdained. These 'obscene" musings of our businessman-president were immediately criticized. But for the rest of us taxpayers, they should be taken very seriously and accepted as fact.
This is what must have gone through Mr. Trump's business-oriented mind, He reasoned this way: how could the PR Commonwealth (a long-time territory of the USA) with an approximately $100 billion dollar GDP, annual revenue (2010) of $31 billion and expenses (2010) of $29 billion, with 12% of its work force unemployed, and a foundering economy---which also owes Wall Street investors about $70 billion dollars in loans (which even prior to Maria the island was struggling to pay back) make good on these outstanding debts? The outcome was uncertain then. But NOW after Maria leveled the island, causing massive destruction to its fragile infrastructure--estimated by many as amounting to $90 billion dollars--any ability to repay those loans evaporated like morning dew on a dangling, red-dappled mango hanging from a tree over a sun-drenched cobbled street in old San Juan.
The devastation of Maria should not change these facts. Wall Street banks and investors took a risk when they accepted the government of Puerto Rico as a debtor. They assumed they would get the seventy billion dollar principle of the loan amount back, plus a sizable profit. This profit was carefully calculated by their accountants and attorneys to be commensurate with the risk they were taking. Risk-taking is why investors make a profit on the money they lend. But in the case of Puerto Rico--obviously the bankers did not do their required "due diligence". They did not take into account--status of the tropical island workforce, their ability to pay, globalization effects, the high costs of living in PR, and the effects of man-induced weather intensification (climate change). The "haircut' that the banks are due...is all their own responsibility. There is no good reason why we should underwrite their miscalculations regarding these loans. That after-all is what risk taking and profit generation are all about.
The banks will have to take a haircut. We should not let them attempt to pass off those bad loans on to the American taxpayer.
NO MONEY TO PAY BACK INVESTORS SHOULD BE TAKEN FROM USA TAX FUNDS
So what can the rest of us do. Let us first say what we should not do. We can not hand out federal money to the PR government to solve their CASH FLOW problem. Money is fungible.
WE TO DO THAT IT would be equivalent to taking tax dollars OUT OF the pockets of Joe and Jane in Wisconsin and handing it over to Jose and Anna in Ponce--who WILL PASS ON THESE FUNDS as loan repayment into the coffers of the Wall Street investors.
In effect pouring hard earned US taxpayer's dollars into the full coffers of the banks in lower Manhattan.
In terms of what we should do--after the bakers agree to accept a reasonable return on their loans.
We should make every effort to help the decent hardworking people of Puerto Rico rebuild after the devastation of Maria.
But that is another blog.
Friday, September 22, 2017
NO INFLATION ECONOMY---NOT GOOD
MYSTERY OF MISSING INFLATION
YELLEN CALLS LOW INFLATION A "MYSTERY"
I read this week in the Guardian (UK) and CNN (Money System) that the Federal Reserve Bank will begin undoing the extraordinary steps it had taken to prop up the economy since the Great Recession. Over the last ten years it soaked up about $5 trillion dollars in mortgage backed securities, and bank debt and reduced the interest rate that banks charge to each other --its 'benchmark' rate-- to zero. . By these means it had hoped to stimulate the faltering economy. But now a decade later the economy--at least to some in Washington---seems to be on the mend. Recent accounts indicate that there has been modest growth in household spending, business investments and a lower rate of unemployment. As a result, the FED under Chairman Yellen has raised the benchmark rate from zero to 1% and then more recently to 1.25% And now, it has started unloading the security and debt investments from its so called "balance sheet" on to the open market Selling off about $10 billion dollars each month.
But even though some aspects of the economy show signs of improvement, the rate of INFLATION remains low. We have little inflation in this recent economy. Ms Janet Yellen, chairman of the FED and one who is required by statute to keep inflation at about 2% has termed this fact a "mystery".
But to my mind it is no mystery. The economy has no inflation because there is not enough money in the hands of middle and working class purchasers. That is a major problem.
Why should we be concerned about inflation? The word "inflation" even sounds negative--like a bad disease. Who would want it? The fact is a thriving economy has it. Its lack means our economy is stilll in trouble.
Inflation is simply one of the best ways to measure the demand for goods and services and the vitality of an economy. That is why the officials who established the FED made it a requirement to MAINTAIN INFLATION at 2%. Inflation is one good measure of how much disposable cash is in the hands of consumers. Inflation measures the demand for goods. It is a force that bubbles up from the multitude of small transactions into profits and new investments and to an overall vibrantly growing economy. When people have sufficient cash available they use it to purchase goods. The sellers respond to this demand by raising prices to increase income or to cover costs of the increase (new employers, new product, etc.) in demand. As a result the prices of goods and services go up. That is inflation. Ms Yellen is required by stature to keep inflation at 2%. But she has not been successful in this important goal. It's persistent low level she has termed a mystery.
But inflation can only occur if consumers have sufficient disposable income. So why is there so little inflation today?
1- The Great Recession has left a great overhang of debt. Many people still have bills to pay off and must use any spare cash to pay off debt rather than purchase a new refrigerator or a stove or a new car. As a consequence of this lack of demand the prices of those items have remained fairly constant.
2- In the last several decades income inequality in the USA has increased drastically and presently the USA has the highest inequality of income ratings world wide. Out of 173 nations, the USA ranks sixth from the bottom in terms of income inequality. That IS embarrassing and exceptional! .
In 2014 according to CBO, 87 percent of the income distribution in the USA was garnered by the top 50% of the working population, while the bottom 50% took in only 13 percent of the total. This value has changed greatly for the worse since the 1970s To put this figure into into a time perspective, the CBO has calculated that if the USA had the same income distribution that it had in 1979 each family in the bottom 80% of the distribution would today have $11,000 more per year on average. Think of how that amount of money would add to the economy and how it would generate inflation.
Vast amounts of wealth and Income in America are presently sequestered by those few at the very top income brackets. An often repeated fact is that today the top 400 richest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 61 percent of the population, or more wealth than 151 million Americans living in 57 million households. Thus the vast majority of people --those in the bottom 50%---are living in an economic environment where more than 50 out of every 100 dollars is NOT available to them--since those funds are nor circulating since they are held in the hands of the top 400. They are playing the economy with only half the deck. The concentration of wealth in the hands of so few is one of the major causes of a weak, stuttering, stumbling economy. Imagine a big rock placed under the gas pedal of your vehicle. You can press the pedal down but the engine can never roar into life. It only staggers along. That is how our economy is functioning with vast sums of income essentially sequestered in the very top income brackets. This is a staggering, stumbling economy--- an economy with no inflation.
3- Out-sourcing of jobs overseas leaves too many of our citizens with only lower paying jobs. Good high paying middle-income jobs are scare in a nation which permits and even encourages its companies to pack up its factories and mover them overseas. Located in Mexico and China these firms produce their product cheaply and then package them up and offer them for sale in the USA-as if they were produced HERE!. Most of the profits from these transactions go to the small cadre of executives and investors--not to the multitudes of American workers--they might have in times past. This injustice only exacerbates tine income inequality problem of above.
4- Our youth are burdened with trillions of dollars of debt as a result of their expensive educations. At the age when they should be making some of the major expenditures of their lives, getting married, purchasing a house, filling it with kids and furniture, these young people are instead living monastic lives in their parent's attics and basements, working perhaps but unable to save enough as they pay off their heavy college debts.
So there is no "mystery" as to why we have low inflation. There is no inflation because there is not enough money in the hands of the MANY. Not enough disposable income for consumers too create enough demand for producers to actually raise prices of those goods and in doing so generate a vibrant, energetic economy...and the inflation which comes with it.
These above are the economic problems we face as a nation. They are also sadly exacerbated by the fact that the American population is aging. Older Americans are retiring..and they leave the work force. And also by the fact that a vibrant technology is constantly creating new ways to eliminate jobs and hand them over to machines.
Low inflation is no mystery at all. Mystery is why we have not
YELLEN CALLS LOW INFLATION A "MYSTERY"
I read this week in the Guardian (UK) and CNN (Money System) that the Federal Reserve Bank will begin undoing the extraordinary steps it had taken to prop up the economy since the Great Recession. Over the last ten years it soaked up about $5 trillion dollars in mortgage backed securities, and bank debt and reduced the interest rate that banks charge to each other --its 'benchmark' rate-- to zero. . By these means it had hoped to stimulate the faltering economy. But now a decade later the economy--at least to some in Washington---seems to be on the mend. Recent accounts indicate that there has been modest growth in household spending, business investments and a lower rate of unemployment. As a result, the FED under Chairman Yellen has raised the benchmark rate from zero to 1% and then more recently to 1.25% And now, it has started unloading the security and debt investments from its so called "balance sheet" on to the open market Selling off about $10 billion dollars each month.
But even though some aspects of the economy show signs of improvement, the rate of INFLATION remains low. We have little inflation in this recent economy. Ms Janet Yellen, chairman of the FED and one who is required by statute to keep inflation at about 2% has termed this fact a "mystery".
But to my mind it is no mystery. The economy has no inflation because there is not enough money in the hands of middle and working class purchasers. That is a major problem.
Why should we be concerned about inflation? The word "inflation" even sounds negative--like a bad disease. Who would want it? The fact is a thriving economy has it. Its lack means our economy is stilll in trouble.
Inflation is simply one of the best ways to measure the demand for goods and services and the vitality of an economy. That is why the officials who established the FED made it a requirement to MAINTAIN INFLATION at 2%. Inflation is one good measure of how much disposable cash is in the hands of consumers. Inflation measures the demand for goods. It is a force that bubbles up from the multitude of small transactions into profits and new investments and to an overall vibrantly growing economy. When people have sufficient cash available they use it to purchase goods. The sellers respond to this demand by raising prices to increase income or to cover costs of the increase (new employers, new product, etc.) in demand. As a result the prices of goods and services go up. That is inflation. Ms Yellen is required by stature to keep inflation at 2%. But she has not been successful in this important goal. It's persistent low level she has termed a mystery.
But inflation can only occur if consumers have sufficient disposable income. So why is there so little inflation today?
1- The Great Recession has left a great overhang of debt. Many people still have bills to pay off and must use any spare cash to pay off debt rather than purchase a new refrigerator or a stove or a new car. As a consequence of this lack of demand the prices of those items have remained fairly constant.
2- In the last several decades income inequality in the USA has increased drastically and presently the USA has the highest inequality of income ratings world wide. Out of 173 nations, the USA ranks sixth from the bottom in terms of income inequality. That IS embarrassing and exceptional! .
In 2014 according to CBO, 87 percent of the income distribution in the USA was garnered by the top 50% of the working population, while the bottom 50% took in only 13 percent of the total. This value has changed greatly for the worse since the 1970s To put this figure into into a time perspective, the CBO has calculated that if the USA had the same income distribution that it had in 1979 each family in the bottom 80% of the distribution would today have $11,000 more per year on average. Think of how that amount of money would add to the economy and how it would generate inflation.
Vast amounts of wealth and Income in America are presently sequestered by those few at the very top income brackets. An often repeated fact is that today the top 400 richest Americans have more wealth than the bottom 61 percent of the population, or more wealth than 151 million Americans living in 57 million households. Thus the vast majority of people --those in the bottom 50%---are living in an economic environment where more than 50 out of every 100 dollars is NOT available to them--since those funds are nor circulating since they are held in the hands of the top 400. They are playing the economy with only half the deck. The concentration of wealth in the hands of so few is one of the major causes of a weak, stuttering, stumbling economy. Imagine a big rock placed under the gas pedal of your vehicle. You can press the pedal down but the engine can never roar into life. It only staggers along. That is how our economy is functioning with vast sums of income essentially sequestered in the very top income brackets. This is a staggering, stumbling economy--- an economy with no inflation.
3- Out-sourcing of jobs overseas leaves too many of our citizens with only lower paying jobs. Good high paying middle-income jobs are scare in a nation which permits and even encourages its companies to pack up its factories and mover them overseas. Located in Mexico and China these firms produce their product cheaply and then package them up and offer them for sale in the USA-as if they were produced HERE!. Most of the profits from these transactions go to the small cadre of executives and investors--not to the multitudes of American workers--they might have in times past. This injustice only exacerbates tine income inequality problem of above.
4- Our youth are burdened with trillions of dollars of debt as a result of their expensive educations. At the age when they should be making some of the major expenditures of their lives, getting married, purchasing a house, filling it with kids and furniture, these young people are instead living monastic lives in their parent's attics and basements, working perhaps but unable to save enough as they pay off their heavy college debts.
So there is no "mystery" as to why we have low inflation. There is no inflation because there is not enough money in the hands of the MANY. Not enough disposable income for consumers too create enough demand for producers to actually raise prices of those goods and in doing so generate a vibrant, energetic economy...and the inflation which comes with it.
These above are the economic problems we face as a nation. They are also sadly exacerbated by the fact that the American population is aging. Older Americans are retiring..and they leave the work force. And also by the fact that a vibrant technology is constantly creating new ways to eliminate jobs and hand them over to machines.
Low inflation is no mystery at all. Mystery is why we have not
Saturday, September 16, 2017
HILLARY PLEASE GO AWAY!
I HAVE NOT READ HER BOOK...WILL NOT AND HAVE NO NEED TO.
MY MESSAGE TO HILLARY:IT'S OVER HILLARCY--YOU LOST. ACCEPT IT.
THE PUNDITS SAY YOU HAD "NO MESSAGE". BUT THAT IS NOT TRUE.
YOUR MESSAGE WAS UNDERSTOOD CLEARLY BY ALL WHO WATCHED AND SUFFERED AND KNEW YOU OVER THESE MANY DECADES.
HILLARY'S MESSAGE AS UNSERSTOOD BY THE VOTERS:
"I WANT TO BE THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT. I HAVE CHECKED ALL THE REQUIRED BOXES. I AM THE MOST QUALIFIED CANDIDATE EVER. I WAS SPURNED BY BILL. I STUCK IT OUT WITH BILL (WE HAD AN AGREEMENT). I GOT SCREWED AGAIN BY OBAMA (ANOTHER MAN). I DESERVE THIS OFFICE. IT IS MINE!
AND OH YES..I DON'T HAVE AN IOTA OF CARE FOR THE "LITTLE PEOPLE"--THE DEPLORABLES"
SO PLEASE HILLARY ACCEPT THE WISDOM OF OUR FOUNDERS WHO THANKFULLY GAVE THE POWER TO GOVERN TO THE LITTLE PEOPLE.
THESE LITTLE PEOPLE HAVE REJECTED YOU AS A FAILED CANDIDATE--
YOUR ACTIONS SINCE THE ELECTION HAVE ONLY UNDERSCORED THE WISDOM OF THEIR SELECTION OF MR TRUMP THEIR ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE CHOICE.
YOU GAVE THE ELECTION TO HIM WITH YOUR HUBRIS
HE WON FAIR AND SQUARE.
NOW LEAVE THE SCENE....PLEASE
MY MESSAGE TO HILLARY:IT'S OVER HILLARCY--YOU LOST. ACCEPT IT.
THE PUNDITS SAY YOU HAD "NO MESSAGE". BUT THAT IS NOT TRUE.
YOUR MESSAGE WAS UNDERSTOOD CLEARLY BY ALL WHO WATCHED AND SUFFERED AND KNEW YOU OVER THESE MANY DECADES.
HILLARY'S MESSAGE AS UNSERSTOOD BY THE VOTERS:
"I WANT TO BE THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT. I HAVE CHECKED ALL THE REQUIRED BOXES. I AM THE MOST QUALIFIED CANDIDATE EVER. I WAS SPURNED BY BILL. I STUCK IT OUT WITH BILL (WE HAD AN AGREEMENT). I GOT SCREWED AGAIN BY OBAMA (ANOTHER MAN). I DESERVE THIS OFFICE. IT IS MINE!
AND OH YES..I DON'T HAVE AN IOTA OF CARE FOR THE "LITTLE PEOPLE"--THE DEPLORABLES"
SO PLEASE HILLARY ACCEPT THE WISDOM OF OUR FOUNDERS WHO THANKFULLY GAVE THE POWER TO GOVERN TO THE LITTLE PEOPLE.
THESE LITTLE PEOPLE HAVE REJECTED YOU AS A FAILED CANDIDATE--
YOUR ACTIONS SINCE THE ELECTION HAVE ONLY UNDERSCORED THE WISDOM OF THEIR SELECTION OF MR TRUMP THEIR ONLY OTHER POSSIBLE CHOICE.
YOU GAVE THE ELECTION TO HIM WITH YOUR HUBRIS
HE WON FAIR AND SQUARE.
NOW LEAVE THE SCENE....PLEASE
Friday, September 15, 2017
HANDS TIED OVER NORTH KOREA? HIT CHINA ECONOMICALLY
WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT NORTH KOREA ?
ANSWER: A "PEOPLE'S CAMPAIGN" AGAINST CHINESE. PRODUCTS!
FORGET SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA. HIT CHINA WITH OUR BEST ECONOMIC WEAPON--AVOID BUYING THEIR PRODUCTS.
If every time we purchased a product we turned it over and determined its country of origin. If noting it was from China and aware that the Chinese perisit in support of North Korea who threaten us by flying missiles over Japan and toward the western USA-- we must ask why should we aid them? Buy something else.
There has been a great deal of consternation about North Korea's missile tests and its rapid advancement in nuclear-bomb technology. That nation has continued to thumb its nose expressed by the international community and from the USA. It has continued with its plans and tests with abandon and impunity. The so called "hermit kingdom" has made a mockery out of established international relations and norms. It must be reined in. But how?
We know that the military options against that nation are not desirable, practicable or humane. Stringent sanctions imposed by the UN and the USA since the early months of this year have had no effect. In the fact the economy of North Korea has actually grown at an enviable rate of about 4% annually in 2016. See: Bloomberg, "North Korea's Secret Weapon. Economic Growth" by David Volodzko September 14, 2017.
Bloomberg author Volodzko asks why rounds of more and ,more stringent sanctions imposed over the last decade failed to get NK to moderate its policies? The reason, according to this author: the economy of NK is actually growing well (its GDP is now rated at about $28.5 billion) and altering its behavior will not work as long as that nation is prospering. How can that be? But the growing prosperity, brazen behavior and boldness of North Korea is directly related to the Chinese. That nation claims to support the rest of the world's concerns about NK---but quietly continue to supply the North with fuel, and raw materials and continue to buy their export products, providing them with the foreign exchange to purchase bomb and missile making materiel. For example, although the Chinese agreed in February to ban NK coal imports, other NK products (like iron) have surged in sales. As a result, in the first half of this year exports to China have grown to $2.5 billion, making up for more than the decline in coal exports It is this perfidious behavior of the Chinese which keeps the North's economy afloat. The result is that sanctions are not likely to have the effects that the Trump Administrations and the rest of the world would like to see.
So we face a determined enemy supported by one of our most priveleged trading partners. In economic terms this is the situation. We buy Chinese vast quantities of goods and the Chinese use the vast sums from those transactions to purchase North Korean coal and iron and sea food. Money is fungible. The funds from those transactions go into the coffers of the North Koreans. In turn Kim Jung un and his underlings use that trade income to advance their nuclear and missile technology to threaten us. So we are, in effect, by our slavish purchasing of Chinese goods, helping to monetize a nuclear threat to our own nation! That seems very stupid.
We can not solve the NK conundrum if the Chinese do not cooperate. So perhaps our best option is to put real pressure on the Chinese? The message they understand best is an economic one. Our trade is critical to their survival.
Mr. Trump, the Republicans, as well as the Democrats and every businessman in America may talk openly of "pressuring" the Chinese but that is all bluster and blather. All our leaders are adamantly against any economic sanctions or other punitive measure against China. It would cost them too dearly in income. But private citizens can act on their own intititivepowerfully in the market place.
If the Chinese will not put the screws to the North Koreans, the world's citizenry need not aid them in their economic support of North Korea and its dangerous polices of nuclear blackmail. . Perhaps we as ordinary citizens should make our displeasure clear by beginning a citizen's disinvestment and /or citizen's sanction, boycott or ban of Chinese goods. If every one of us rejected a sale of a Chinese manufactured product--the more expensive the better--the effects would be enormous and immediate.
In a very short time Mr Xi Jinping would be motivated to act to end his economic support of his wayward neighbor and end the terrible threat of a nuclear exchange.
ANSWER: A "PEOPLE'S CAMPAIGN" AGAINST CHINESE. PRODUCTS!
FORGET SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA. HIT CHINA WITH OUR BEST ECONOMIC WEAPON--AVOID BUYING THEIR PRODUCTS.
If every time we purchased a product we turned it over and determined its country of origin. If noting it was from China and aware that the Chinese perisit in support of North Korea who threaten us by flying missiles over Japan and toward the western USA-- we must ask why should we aid them? Buy something else.
There has been a great deal of consternation about North Korea's missile tests and its rapid advancement in nuclear-bomb technology. That nation has continued to thumb its nose expressed by the international community and from the USA. It has continued with its plans and tests with abandon and impunity. The so called "hermit kingdom" has made a mockery out of established international relations and norms. It must be reined in. But how?
We know that the military options against that nation are not desirable, practicable or humane. Stringent sanctions imposed by the UN and the USA since the early months of this year have had no effect. In the fact the economy of North Korea has actually grown at an enviable rate of about 4% annually in 2016. See: Bloomberg, "North Korea's Secret Weapon. Economic Growth" by David Volodzko September 14, 2017.
Bloomberg author Volodzko asks why rounds of more and ,more stringent sanctions imposed over the last decade failed to get NK to moderate its policies? The reason, according to this author: the economy of NK is actually growing well (its GDP is now rated at about $28.5 billion) and altering its behavior will not work as long as that nation is prospering. How can that be? But the growing prosperity, brazen behavior and boldness of North Korea is directly related to the Chinese. That nation claims to support the rest of the world's concerns about NK---but quietly continue to supply the North with fuel, and raw materials and continue to buy their export products, providing them with the foreign exchange to purchase bomb and missile making materiel. For example, although the Chinese agreed in February to ban NK coal imports, other NK products (like iron) have surged in sales. As a result, in the first half of this year exports to China have grown to $2.5 billion, making up for more than the decline in coal exports It is this perfidious behavior of the Chinese which keeps the North's economy afloat. The result is that sanctions are not likely to have the effects that the Trump Administrations and the rest of the world would like to see.
So we face a determined enemy supported by one of our most priveleged trading partners. In economic terms this is the situation. We buy Chinese vast quantities of goods and the Chinese use the vast sums from those transactions to purchase North Korean coal and iron and sea food. Money is fungible. The funds from those transactions go into the coffers of the North Koreans. In turn Kim Jung un and his underlings use that trade income to advance their nuclear and missile technology to threaten us. So we are, in effect, by our slavish purchasing of Chinese goods, helping to monetize a nuclear threat to our own nation! That seems very stupid.
We can not solve the NK conundrum if the Chinese do not cooperate. So perhaps our best option is to put real pressure on the Chinese? The message they understand best is an economic one. Our trade is critical to their survival.
Mr. Trump, the Republicans, as well as the Democrats and every businessman in America may talk openly of "pressuring" the Chinese but that is all bluster and blather. All our leaders are adamantly against any economic sanctions or other punitive measure against China. It would cost them too dearly in income. But private citizens can act on their own intititivepowerfully in the market place.
If the Chinese will not put the screws to the North Koreans, the world's citizenry need not aid them in their economic support of North Korea and its dangerous polices of nuclear blackmail. . Perhaps we as ordinary citizens should make our displeasure clear by beginning a citizen's disinvestment and /or citizen's sanction, boycott or ban of Chinese goods. If every one of us rejected a sale of a Chinese manufactured product--the more expensive the better--the effects would be enormous and immediate.
In a very short time Mr Xi Jinping would be motivated to act to end his economic support of his wayward neighbor and end the terrible threat of a nuclear exchange.
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