From Le Monde 25-10-08
THE FALL OF PETROL PRICES WEAKENS OIL PRODUCTION COUNTRIES
"With a barrel of oil approaching $60 dollars, the period of the "fat cow" for the producers of black gold is finished," states Jean-Michel Bezat in his piece published on Friday, in Le Monde, Paris. Over-all for the more populated states which have drawn in petroleum revenues to finance their sometimes populist public politics--everything affects the balance of their budget. Particularly sensitive to the basis (in oil price), Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Mexico or Venezuela come to know of the coming days and the disenchantment in the course of maintaining (their economies) at this level.
These nations are heavily dependent upon hydrocarbons,who were able to assure almost 90% of the budget receipts for export of this commodity. The petroleum states have "engrange" or hauled in close to one trillion dollars in 2007 (when the price of brut up to the first quarter of 2008) assured them again of comfortable revenues in 2008. But the year 2009 will be tight if the world plunges into recession and draws with it (these petrol-dependant nations) with the cooling of consumption and of the price of black gold.
These oil producing countries are not all in the same boat because they do not all have the same costs of production and addiction to black gold, or the same budgetary discipline. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Iraq remains the most exposed. Its program of reconstruction of its petroleum industry requires a price per barrel of oil at $110 dollars (to be worth its extraction and transport costs). Baghdad, which possess the third largest world reserves hoped to more than double its export production from 2.5 to 6 million barrels per day in the next ten years with the help of the western oil companies.
Iran with the second highest reserves comes just behind. It brakes even with a barrel at $90 dollars to balance its budget, followed by Venezuela (around $80 dollars). In Algeria, the (overhead engendered by) its vast program of public investment in infrastructure requires a base price of minimum of $56 dollars a barrel. With less people and the benefit of oil which is more easily extracted, Quttar, Kuwait, Lybia and Saudia Arabia can content themselves with prices (respectively) of $24, $33, $47, and $49.
The president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has recently confirmed that his country "ne sombreara pas" (will not sink) with a barrel at $60 dollars, but such a (price) situation has a risk of tightness. He (Chavez) has the benefit of petrodollars in reserve, but for how long? Venezuela's need for importation of materials of primary production, and of food weigh heavily (on the economy) without forgetting (not to mention) the generous social programs and foreign aid to those who follow the "Bolivarian Revolution". Domingo Maza Zaval, the former director of the central bank (of Venezuela) recently confided to the AFO that "With a barrel below $70 dollars, the costs of the balance of payments do not even out" (for Venezuela).
In Iran "Some Significant Damage".
The minister of finance of Nigeria, Mssr Shamsudeen Usman, has already announced a "revision of the (petroleum price) basis of the 2009 budget is established on a price per barrel (that is) too high." To a lesser extent Nigeria, Venezuela and Iran will be able to dispose of (sell) again important reserves of their hydrocarbons (it seems). However the case of Mexico is more alarming: the decline in (world) prices plays (into the) effect on the depletion of its fields and of the petrol giant Cantarell as well as the weaknesses of investments in the national company Pemex (especially) in (sectors such as) exploration, production and refining. Overall, (these) factors which have cut off receipts from the state (have also) weakened the conservative president Filipe Calderon.
For the directors of certain petroleum-producer nations the risk of political fractures becomes heavy if the basis (which has fallen by -55% in three months ) is amplified. As to Venezuela, the first test will be during their local and national election on November 23. In Iran the the bottoming out (of prices) during this period has exacerbated internal dissension, reenforcing the adversaries of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, elected in 2005 on the popular program of redistribution of the petroleum income, and who is accused of having increased dependence on a petroleum economy.
His predecessor, Akbar Hachemi Rafsandjani, has forewarned those who see the crushing financial defeat as a punishment for the west. Friday, in a radio sermon, the unfortunate rival of Rafsandjani, Ahmadinejad, is identified that the "the fall of petroleum has provoked great damage to our nation., accusing his successor of having wasted the revenue of the petroleum industry.
It is not surprising that Iran and Venezuela have reclaimed a strong basis of production, Friday, at the reunion of the OPEC. They have obtained a partial gain, without the cartel able to make a rise of price above the 90-100 dollar level, the price base (planche) for Caracas and Teheran. They are more "cocasse" comical that they have demanded of Saudia Arabia, the premier producer in the world, to carry alone the burden for those same benefits of maintaining their production and at one of a higher price!
In the immediate future, this (debut)coming out of the anti-shock petroliers goes to blunt the weapon of energy (arme de energetic) which permit ed Russia to intimidate its neighbors , and for Venezuela to sell its friendship in Latin America.
This is not perhaps the 'l'affaire de mois". Numerous experts judge that the price can not be raised because of the "ciseaux" (pincer) effect between the difficulty of access to the petroleum resources for political or technical reasons, which limit the offer and the revival of demand in the end of the recession.
Jeann-Michel Bezat (Translation: RJ Kalin)
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
CHINA'S INPUT INTO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, CHEAP YUAN
The Peoples Republic of China(PRC) is viewed as an emerging super power. The commissars of the socialist republic centered in Beijing rule over a land area of nearly 10 million square kilometers (the third largest country) and a population of 1.3 billion souls. What happens in this vast terrane where one fifth of the world population reside has a great impact on the rest of us---and on the world economy. And though they appear insulated from us..they affect us and we have our impact on them as well.
Take the financial crisis on Wall Street. According to Michael Schuman posting in http://www.time.com/, (Oct 23, 2008) as little as a few months back, China appeared well insulated from the gathering financial storm due to its vibrant economic growth (12% in 2007),limited exposure of Chinese banks to American-style-banking-excesses, and its nearly $2 trillion in hard currency reserves which could be drawn down if needed in an emergency. But in a short few weeks in October gaps in their protective wall have appeared. Schuman reports on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics which indicate that China's $3.5 trillion gross domestic product or GDP (converted here into US dollars) has declined in the last quarter by 9%, or by more than $300 billion dollars. While estimates for next year suggest a GDP growth of only 8%. This seems a paltry decline, when viewed from the perspective of western developed nations (e.g. France, the seventh largest economy in the world reports a GDP of $2.6 trillion..France just putter's along at about 2% annual GDP growth rate) but this mere one percent decline for China puts it back to the growth rate they experienced way back in 1999.
What's causing China's downturn? Globalization, the complex interweaving and integration of the world's economies appears to be the underlying culprit. While the proximate reason is that China is heavily dependant on manufacturing and exporting. This sector of its economy accounts for 43% part of its over-all economy. And since more than forty percent of the products China makes are sold to Europe and the US---where the financial mess started and where a massive downturn is in progress, it's not likely that that manufacturing component of its economy can be sustained.
But as noted above, China is big and it may have other fish to fry. Today a report published in China Daily (chinadaily.com.cn) indicates how the leaders in Beijing plan to respond to the economic challenge of the financial crisis in the west. The answer is a massive one trillion yuan (@142 billion dollar) domestic aid program to spur the Chinese housing market. Housing? Yes, it is hoped that growth in that sector may soak up some of the slack caused by the lay-offs from the global decline. To spur growth, the plan calls for a reduction in taxes on home buying, abandoning the property stamp tax and cutting mortgage rates by as much as 30%.
Back in April 2008 Joe Lazzaro posted a blog on bloggingstocks.com which focused on the fact that China had just modified its currency stance in order to gain control of an inflation problem (related to its overheated economy) at that time running at about 8.7%. Historically China has kept the yuan arbitrarily low (presently at @7 yuan to the dollar) to stimulate expansion of its economy. The low yuan keeps the cost of Chinese exports cheap, stirs demand for products abroad and results in increases in output, higher productivity, etc. The cheap yuan has been a major factor in generating China's surging manufacturing-export revenue and as well, the raging inflation associated with rapid growth. According to Lazzaro's informants, if Beijing let the yuan float freely it would appreciate to 5 or even 4.5 yuan to the dollar. In response to past complaints from the US and other trading partners (rightly concerned with rising trade deficits with China) the PRC has argued that the value of the yuan was a domestic matter, and that rather than pointing a finger at China, the US and others should encourage their consumers to buy less and save more-- and solve their trade-deficit problems that way.
Back in April 2008 Lazzaro and others warned that the global and commodity price boom that China's cheap yuan-based exports have helped to create may turn around and bite them---and today that is what seems to have happened. But perhaps their policies (in this global economy) helped to take a bite out of us too.
This past April, commodity prices such as grains, minerals, and especially oil had surged to record levels in part due to the pressures of a weak yuan (cheap imports helped promote and sustain the housing bubble in the USA, and the manufacturing boom in China, while increasing the world-demand for commodities resulting in rapid fuel price rise). Now in October, we know how those rising prices, especially of fuel, worked to generate what appears to be a deep global recession.
Looking back now, in some way the cheap yuan and the burgeoning Chinese economy may have had an effect on initiating the financial crisis. China's cheap monetary policies helped sustain the housing bubble here in the US and its strong economy raised unsustainable demands on commodities, especially fuel. Certainly this latter factor figured in the calculation. Perhaps the fuel-price surge was the straw which broke the sub-prime mortgagee's back and that led to the collapse of Wall Street. Of course, if it were not for certain elements in the USA, such as Greenspan's penchant for cheap money and unwise deregulation, exotic mortgage-based securities, credit default swaps, sub prime loans, and market practices such as 'buying short' what the Chinese did or did not do might have had little effect. One thing we can say with certainty, in the future the USA and our global trading partners must understand the nature of the close interdependence they are engaged in. China's money policies are not a strictly internal matter if they affect global trade and commodity consumption, and yes, the lack of wise oversight of Wall Street traders can have an impact on distant Beijing.
Next:
Hungary:
Ukraine:
Russia:
Take the financial crisis on Wall Street. According to Michael Schuman posting in http://www.time.com/, (Oct 23, 2008) as little as a few months back, China appeared well insulated from the gathering financial storm due to its vibrant economic growth (12% in 2007),limited exposure of Chinese banks to American-style-banking-excesses, and its nearly $2 trillion in hard currency reserves which could be drawn down if needed in an emergency. But in a short few weeks in October gaps in their protective wall have appeared. Schuman reports on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics which indicate that China's $3.5 trillion gross domestic product or GDP (converted here into US dollars) has declined in the last quarter by 9%, or by more than $300 billion dollars. While estimates for next year suggest a GDP growth of only 8%. This seems a paltry decline, when viewed from the perspective of western developed nations (e.g. France, the seventh largest economy in the world reports a GDP of $2.6 trillion..France just putter's along at about 2% annual GDP growth rate) but this mere one percent decline for China puts it back to the growth rate they experienced way back in 1999.
What's causing China's downturn? Globalization, the complex interweaving and integration of the world's economies appears to be the underlying culprit. While the proximate reason is that China is heavily dependant on manufacturing and exporting. This sector of its economy accounts for 43% part of its over-all economy. And since more than forty percent of the products China makes are sold to Europe and the US---where the financial mess started and where a massive downturn is in progress, it's not likely that that manufacturing component of its economy can be sustained.
But as noted above, China is big and it may have other fish to fry. Today a report published in China Daily (chinadaily.com.cn) indicates how the leaders in Beijing plan to respond to the economic challenge of the financial crisis in the west. The answer is a massive one trillion yuan (@142 billion dollar) domestic aid program to spur the Chinese housing market. Housing? Yes, it is hoped that growth in that sector may soak up some of the slack caused by the lay-offs from the global decline. To spur growth, the plan calls for a reduction in taxes on home buying, abandoning the property stamp tax and cutting mortgage rates by as much as 30%.
Back in April 2008 Joe Lazzaro posted a blog on bloggingstocks.com which focused on the fact that China had just modified its currency stance in order to gain control of an inflation problem (related to its overheated economy) at that time running at about 8.7%. Historically China has kept the yuan arbitrarily low (presently at @7 yuan to the dollar) to stimulate expansion of its economy. The low yuan keeps the cost of Chinese exports cheap, stirs demand for products abroad and results in increases in output, higher productivity, etc. The cheap yuan has been a major factor in generating China's surging manufacturing-export revenue and as well, the raging inflation associated with rapid growth. According to Lazzaro's informants, if Beijing let the yuan float freely it would appreciate to 5 or even 4.5 yuan to the dollar. In response to past complaints from the US and other trading partners (rightly concerned with rising trade deficits with China) the PRC has argued that the value of the yuan was a domestic matter, and that rather than pointing a finger at China, the US and others should encourage their consumers to buy less and save more-- and solve their trade-deficit problems that way.
Back in April 2008 Lazzaro and others warned that the global and commodity price boom that China's cheap yuan-based exports have helped to create may turn around and bite them---and today that is what seems to have happened. But perhaps their policies (in this global economy) helped to take a bite out of us too.
This past April, commodity prices such as grains, minerals, and especially oil had surged to record levels in part due to the pressures of a weak yuan (cheap imports helped promote and sustain the housing bubble in the USA, and the manufacturing boom in China, while increasing the world-demand for commodities resulting in rapid fuel price rise). Now in October, we know how those rising prices, especially of fuel, worked to generate what appears to be a deep global recession.
Looking back now, in some way the cheap yuan and the burgeoning Chinese economy may have had an effect on initiating the financial crisis. China's cheap monetary policies helped sustain the housing bubble here in the US and its strong economy raised unsustainable demands on commodities, especially fuel. Certainly this latter factor figured in the calculation. Perhaps the fuel-price surge was the straw which broke the sub-prime mortgagee's back and that led to the collapse of Wall Street. Of course, if it were not for certain elements in the USA, such as Greenspan's penchant for cheap money and unwise deregulation, exotic mortgage-based securities, credit default swaps, sub prime loans, and market practices such as 'buying short' what the Chinese did or did not do might have had little effect. One thing we can say with certainty, in the future the USA and our global trading partners must understand the nature of the close interdependence they are engaged in. China's money policies are not a strictly internal matter if they affect global trade and commodity consumption, and yes, the lack of wise oversight of Wall Street traders can have an impact on distant Beijing.
Next:
Hungary:
Ukraine:
Russia:
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
THE CELTIC TIGER HITS THE SKIDS
What Happened to the Celtic Tiger? Has Ireland hits the skids?
I visited Ireland several times in the nineties, before the Irish economic boom and loved it. The food was actually good, and of course Guinness on tap was available everywhere...and they say there "its good for you". After the happy event of an economic resurgence, prices climbed too and, reluctantly, I found it difficult to visit again. So I never did get to see the Celtic Tiger in action, but I followed that nation's progress with keen interest. While other events held sway closer to home, the thoughts of lovely Ireland did not fade away but remained a pleasant memory to revisit now and again always ending with hopes that the dollar might rise again relative to the euro and make a revisit possible. So today, I was especially startled to learn by way of a radio news report on NPR of a massive raucous protest of senior citizens (!) outside of the Irish government's Leinster House in Dublin! Angry seniors had gathered to protest. During th broadcast the Irish minister of health came out of the building and attempted to reach the podium from where he was to address the angry crowd. It was not to be. The menacing elderly pensioners, many over 70 years old, raced up to the podium to tear the microphone out of the hand of the government official. With the microphone in hand of an elderly man and the health minster in retreat, the raucous crowd finally settled down--- and began singing "a capella" but not an Irish lullaby, but an 20th century American civil rights song--"We Shall Overcome"--in a distinctive Irish brogue. What was going on there in Ireland?
It had to do with the faltering economy. On October 14, 2008 the Irish government announced a harsh belt-tightening plan for 2009 which included sharp tax rises and spending cuts of two billion euros ($2.7 billion). But the cut in outlay included a proposal to pull the national (free) health-benefit cards from a large segment of over-70 Irish pensioners! That got the seniors real mad.
Ireland is in a recession--its first in 25 years, and it is the first European nation to admit to it. To read how it happend access the following site. (See http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/14/AR2008101400577.html)
It's a familiar story, that we here in the USA should understand. A recent headline in the Irish Times blared out in its front page: "Property asking-prices are down 10%!" Home values have plummetted and building starts are stalled. http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/is-ireland-heading-for-recession.aspx
It was a shock for all those who, as we did here, simply assume that real-estate prices would always rise. Remember hearing this? "Hey, the salesman said, "there's only so much land (or houses) and because of the laws of supply and demand the price will always go up." But according to estimates reported in Moneyweeek Irish property values were inflated (by unflagging demand) by as much as 25%. So perhaps only those few buying in the last few years, when prices were high would be affected? Well not so. According to Morgan Kelly, Professor of Economics at University College, Dublin, Ireland had become a "Bob the Builder" economy over the last decade. How did it happen? Well in 1998 the economy was strong, business was brisk and interest rates were stabilized at about 6% the economic wonder or Europe was dubbed the "Celtic Tiger". It was then that Ireland took advantage of its Eurozone position to opt for an interest rate offered by the European Central Bank (then with a sharply reduced interest rate-more suited to the struggling economies of France and Germany at the time). So after 1998 Ireland had a booming economy and low interest rates. Easy money and lots of entrepreneurial enthusiasm. This led to a housing boom which according to Moneyweek caused house prices to shoot up by more than 200% in the past five years. The construction boom employed a whopping 13% of the Irish labor force, that is more than one out of every eight working adults in Ireland worked in the building trades. When the building boom ended, the whole Irish economy was carried along with it.
So that is how, on October 14, 2008 angry Irish seniors were protesting. The end came when the decade-old housing boom met the global financial mess and set Ireland to be the first eurozone nation to enter recession.
Irish government data revealed a deficit of 12 billion euros for this year and expected it to rise to 15 billion in 2009. That would represent a government deficit of 7% of GDP and would be about twice the amount set by the European Union Stability and Growth Pact. Interestingly our own USA budget deficit for 2007 hit about $500 billion (without the recent bailout money) while our GDP is about $13 trillion, for a budget deficit of about 4% of GDP. So our present status would not permit us to be part of the eurozone either.
The fall of the Celtic Tiger, a sad commentary, but one to ponder about---and to remember. History does not repeat itself....but circumstances do!
I visited Ireland several times in the nineties, before the Irish economic boom and loved it. The food was actually good, and of course Guinness on tap was available everywhere...and they say there "its good for you". After the happy event of an economic resurgence, prices climbed too and, reluctantly, I found it difficult to visit again. So I never did get to see the Celtic Tiger in action, but I followed that nation's progress with keen interest. While other events held sway closer to home, the thoughts of lovely Ireland did not fade away but remained a pleasant memory to revisit now and again always ending with hopes that the dollar might rise again relative to the euro and make a revisit possible. So today, I was especially startled to learn by way of a radio news report on NPR of a massive raucous protest of senior citizens (!) outside of the Irish government's Leinster House in Dublin! Angry seniors had gathered to protest. During th broadcast the Irish minister of health came out of the building and attempted to reach the podium from where he was to address the angry crowd. It was not to be. The menacing elderly pensioners, many over 70 years old, raced up to the podium to tear the microphone out of the hand of the government official. With the microphone in hand of an elderly man and the health minster in retreat, the raucous crowd finally settled down--- and began singing "a capella" but not an Irish lullaby, but an 20th century American civil rights song--"We Shall Overcome"--in a distinctive Irish brogue. What was going on there in Ireland?
It had to do with the faltering economy. On October 14, 2008 the Irish government announced a harsh belt-tightening plan for 2009 which included sharp tax rises and spending cuts of two billion euros ($2.7 billion). But the cut in outlay included a proposal to pull the national (free) health-benefit cards from a large segment of over-70 Irish pensioners! That got the seniors real mad.
Ireland is in a recession--its first in 25 years, and it is the first European nation to admit to it. To read how it happend access the following site. (See http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/14/AR2008101400577.html)
It's a familiar story, that we here in the USA should understand. A recent headline in the Irish Times blared out in its front page: "Property asking-prices are down 10%!" Home values have plummetted and building starts are stalled. http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/is-ireland-heading-for-recession.aspx
It was a shock for all those who, as we did here, simply assume that real-estate prices would always rise. Remember hearing this? "Hey, the salesman said, "there's only so much land (or houses) and because of the laws of supply and demand the price will always go up." But according to estimates reported in Moneyweeek Irish property values were inflated (by unflagging demand) by as much as 25%. So perhaps only those few buying in the last few years, when prices were high would be affected? Well not so. According to Morgan Kelly, Professor of Economics at University College, Dublin, Ireland had become a "Bob the Builder" economy over the last decade. How did it happen? Well in 1998 the economy was strong, business was brisk and interest rates were stabilized at about 6% the economic wonder or Europe was dubbed the "Celtic Tiger". It was then that Ireland took advantage of its Eurozone position to opt for an interest rate offered by the European Central Bank (then with a sharply reduced interest rate-more suited to the struggling economies of France and Germany at the time). So after 1998 Ireland had a booming economy and low interest rates. Easy money and lots of entrepreneurial enthusiasm. This led to a housing boom which according to Moneyweek caused house prices to shoot up by more than 200% in the past five years. The construction boom employed a whopping 13% of the Irish labor force, that is more than one out of every eight working adults in Ireland worked in the building trades. When the building boom ended, the whole Irish economy was carried along with it.
So that is how, on October 14, 2008 angry Irish seniors were protesting. The end came when the decade-old housing boom met the global financial mess and set Ireland to be the first eurozone nation to enter recession.
Irish government data revealed a deficit of 12 billion euros for this year and expected it to rise to 15 billion in 2009. That would represent a government deficit of 7% of GDP and would be about twice the amount set by the European Union Stability and Growth Pact. Interestingly our own USA budget deficit for 2007 hit about $500 billion (without the recent bailout money) while our GDP is about $13 trillion, for a budget deficit of about 4% of GDP. So our present status would not permit us to be part of the eurozone either.
The fall of the Celtic Tiger, a sad commentary, but one to ponder about---and to remember. History does not repeat itself....but circumstances do!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
INFAMOUS JUDY MILLER JOINS FOX
Judy Miller once worked for the NY Times as a prominent reporter known for her access to top government officials. Miller's coverage of events prior to the War in Iraq and especially her presentation of events regarding Iraq's alleged WMDs were largely proven to be false and, she was widely charged with being a shill for the Bush administration. Eventually, the Times apologized for its reporting during that period. She was soon after released by the Times, and it was widely believed at the time that she was fired. The likely reason: war fever had subsided and cooler heads reviewing her work concluded that she was both journalistically and ethically challenged and was at least partly responsible for ginning up the Iraq war which the public had turned against. Her successful modus operandi:cultivate top-ranking sources, write just enough of what they wanted to publicize so as to keep the "journalist-source" relationship going, and submit scoops and front-page material to please and enrich the Times' editors and publishers. Everyone was happy...the source got its position publicized, the paper increased circulation, and Judy Miller enriched herself. However, the public and the nation were ill served, by these relationships, but who cared? These methods kept her employed at the Times from 1977 to 2005. Unfortunately, her false stories occurring when they did helped to initiate a disastrous war.
Miller was famously jailed for 85 days for contempt of court for refusing to testify before a grand jury regarding the Plame affair. While in prison she falsely claimed she could not reveal the sources related to the Plame outing, when she was knowingly in possession of a release from Lewis Scooter Libby the focus of the investigation all the time she was incarcerated. She eventually testified and was released. Why she literally jailed herself all that time remains unexplained.
I haven't heard this term used about her, but I would classify her as a practitioner of "yellow journalism". It seems the vaunted NY Times did not know or care about the short-comings of her stories which were to a large extent a form of Bush administration propaganda. (When I was in school, Yellow Journalism was a serious charge. Miller and the NYT of that period could fit the charge. Wikipedia defines it as:journalism that downplays legitimate news in favor of eye-catching headlines that sell more newspapers. It may feature exaggerations of news events, scandal-mongering, sensationalism, or unprofessional practices by news media organizations or journalists.)
So her re-appearance from semi-retirement on Fox is not earth-shattering. There she will join other similalry challenged such as Riley, Hannity, and the other blatant propagandists for the reactionary right. So what else is new? Judy Miller actually belongs at FOX.
I append here a brief history of Judy Miller's writings during the lead-up to the Iraq war for those who like to have their memory tweaked by way of a few of the stories that "did not come out as she expected" as her new boss at FOX stated recently.
Shortly after 9-11 she learned of an impending search by the FBI of an Islamic Charities group called Holy Land Foundation..in her eagerness for a scoop she telephoned the group before the search actually took place and blew the cover off the operation. She was not sanctioned by her employer or prosecuted for this.
Miller broke the story in the NYT about those infamous metal tubes which were bound for Iraq, and which her unnamed high-level sources claimed were planned to be used for nuclear centrifuges (needed to concentrate nuclear materials to bomb grade) and further claimed that the tubes provided evidence that Iraq had stepped up its bomb making plans. The story helped plant the idea in the public mind that Iraq was embarked on worldwide hunt for materials to make an atom bomb. The information regarding the tubes was false but the Times article was widely circulated and glibly quoted by Bush officials Rice,Powell, Rumsfeld as a partial basis for dislodging Sadam Hussein from power and going to war. It generated the oft quoted statement by Condi Rice about the first sign of a smoking gun to be a "mushroom cloud." As well, this story triggered a 'feeding frenzy' directed at finding evidence of Iraq's sources of nuclear material and led to another scandal-- the false claim regarding Iraq's purchase of 'yellow cake' uranium ore in Niger. This claim by the Bush administration led to the Wilson-Plame affair (See below).
While embedded in a military unit during the early period of the Iraq war, Miller used second-hand information to falsely declare that WMD had been found in Iraq. This was widely reported and helped stiffen support for the war.
Miller authored another piece about a mysterious Iraqi scientist (she termed a 'silver bullet') who worked on the biological and nuclear weapons programs. This revelation also proved to be false.
By this time, with American and allied forces ranging widely over the countryside with no evidence of weapons programs revealed, the suspicion arose that perhaps it was true, Iraq had no program to make atom bombs, and the actual existence of WMD in Iraq, the causus belli, might have been over-played by the Bush administration. As a consequence, the search now turned to more easily hidden biological weapons...these were also WMD and would serve the Bush-Cheney propaganda machine just as well. But still no bio-weapons labs could be located. It was about his time Miller posted a story regarding 'mobile weapons labs' (which would neatly explain why our forces could not find WMD anyplace in Iraq...they were on wheels and being moved around to escape inspection or perhaps were driven over the Iraq-Syria border). This story also proved to be false.For a full expose of Miller's journalistic peccadillos at this period see:http://www.slate.com/id/2086110/
Miller's involvement in the Plame Affair (CIA leak case) was never completely revealed. Valerie Plame a CIA agent who's husband former ambassador Joe Wilson wrote a piece in the NYT just before the war entitled: "What I didn't find in Africa". In it Wilson who had been in the Clinton administration, documented that there was no credible evidence that Iraq had been seeking 'yellow cake" (See: Yellow cake forgery). Yellow cake is an uranium oxide mineral (actually a leachate of several Uranium oxides from which enriched uranium can be extracted). It is found and mined in Niger, Africa. The supposed fact that Iraq had been seeking yelowcake (from which enriched uranium could be readily extracted--using those aluminum tubes!)had been a central tenet in the Bush Administration's justification for war with Iraq. Just two days after Wilson's article was published,that Judy Miller met with Irve Lewis "Scooter" Libby a member of the Cheney inner circle. They discussed Valeri Plame. Soon afterward Mrs Wilson's identify as a CIA agent was exposed in a column by Robert Novak (:Mission to Niger July 14, 2003) Miller never wrote the story about Valerie Plame, perhaps it was even too far out for her to pursue. Miller appears to have been involved only in that her earlier stories were in part the basis for the interest in Niger-Iraq relationship. It was later revealed that it was Rchard Armitage and Karl Rove who were Novak's sources in the Bush Administration. Novak claimed that Armitage freely offered the information and indicated it would be useful to his investigative "Evans and Novak" style column. However, the revelations around the investigation of Plame's 'outing' does give an insight into how Miller used her access to high-level officials to obtain information for her stories and the questionable ethics of the close ties and relationships between journalist and information source.
In 2004 a Times editorial acknowledged that many of its stories had relied too heavily on Ahmed Chalabi an infamous Iraqi exile bent on regime change who even the White House had finally abandoned because he had been exposed as lacking trustworthiness. Later it was revealed that ten of the twelve stories the Times apologised for were written by Miller.
Welcome to FOX news!
Miller was famously jailed for 85 days for contempt of court for refusing to testify before a grand jury regarding the Plame affair. While in prison she falsely claimed she could not reveal the sources related to the Plame outing, when she was knowingly in possession of a release from Lewis Scooter Libby the focus of the investigation all the time she was incarcerated. She eventually testified and was released. Why she literally jailed herself all that time remains unexplained.
I haven't heard this term used about her, but I would classify her as a practitioner of "yellow journalism". It seems the vaunted NY Times did not know or care about the short-comings of her stories which were to a large extent a form of Bush administration propaganda. (When I was in school, Yellow Journalism was a serious charge. Miller and the NYT of that period could fit the charge. Wikipedia defines it as:journalism that downplays legitimate news in favor of eye-catching headlines that sell more newspapers. It may feature exaggerations of news events, scandal-mongering, sensationalism, or unprofessional practices by news media organizations or journalists.)
So her re-appearance from semi-retirement on Fox is not earth-shattering. There she will join other similalry challenged such as Riley, Hannity, and the other blatant propagandists for the reactionary right. So what else is new? Judy Miller actually belongs at FOX.
I append here a brief history of Judy Miller's writings during the lead-up to the Iraq war for those who like to have their memory tweaked by way of a few of the stories that "did not come out as she expected" as her new boss at FOX stated recently.
Shortly after 9-11 she learned of an impending search by the FBI of an Islamic Charities group called Holy Land Foundation..in her eagerness for a scoop she telephoned the group before the search actually took place and blew the cover off the operation. She was not sanctioned by her employer or prosecuted for this.
Miller broke the story in the NYT about those infamous metal tubes which were bound for Iraq, and which her unnamed high-level sources claimed were planned to be used for nuclear centrifuges (needed to concentrate nuclear materials to bomb grade) and further claimed that the tubes provided evidence that Iraq had stepped up its bomb making plans. The story helped plant the idea in the public mind that Iraq was embarked on worldwide hunt for materials to make an atom bomb. The information regarding the tubes was false but the Times article was widely circulated and glibly quoted by Bush officials Rice,Powell, Rumsfeld as a partial basis for dislodging Sadam Hussein from power and going to war. It generated the oft quoted statement by Condi Rice about the first sign of a smoking gun to be a "mushroom cloud." As well, this story triggered a 'feeding frenzy' directed at finding evidence of Iraq's sources of nuclear material and led to another scandal-- the false claim regarding Iraq's purchase of 'yellow cake' uranium ore in Niger. This claim by the Bush administration led to the Wilson-Plame affair (See below).
While embedded in a military unit during the early period of the Iraq war, Miller used second-hand information to falsely declare that WMD had been found in Iraq. This was widely reported and helped stiffen support for the war.
Miller authored another piece about a mysterious Iraqi scientist (she termed a 'silver bullet') who worked on the biological and nuclear weapons programs. This revelation also proved to be false.
By this time, with American and allied forces ranging widely over the countryside with no evidence of weapons programs revealed, the suspicion arose that perhaps it was true, Iraq had no program to make atom bombs, and the actual existence of WMD in Iraq, the causus belli, might have been over-played by the Bush administration. As a consequence, the search now turned to more easily hidden biological weapons...these were also WMD and would serve the Bush-Cheney propaganda machine just as well. But still no bio-weapons labs could be located. It was about his time Miller posted a story regarding 'mobile weapons labs' (which would neatly explain why our forces could not find WMD anyplace in Iraq...they were on wheels and being moved around to escape inspection or perhaps were driven over the Iraq-Syria border). This story also proved to be false.For a full expose of Miller's journalistic peccadillos at this period see:http://www.slate.com/id/2086110/
Miller's involvement in the Plame Affair (CIA leak case) was never completely revealed. Valerie Plame a CIA agent who's husband former ambassador Joe Wilson wrote a piece in the NYT just before the war entitled: "What I didn't find in Africa". In it Wilson who had been in the Clinton administration, documented that there was no credible evidence that Iraq had been seeking 'yellow cake" (See: Yellow cake forgery). Yellow cake is an uranium oxide mineral (actually a leachate of several Uranium oxides from which enriched uranium can be extracted). It is found and mined in Niger, Africa. The supposed fact that Iraq had been seeking yelowcake (from which enriched uranium could be readily extracted--using those aluminum tubes!)had been a central tenet in the Bush Administration's justification for war with Iraq. Just two days after Wilson's article was published,that Judy Miller met with Irve Lewis "Scooter" Libby a member of the Cheney inner circle. They discussed Valeri Plame. Soon afterward Mrs Wilson's identify as a CIA agent was exposed in a column by Robert Novak (:Mission to Niger July 14, 2003) Miller never wrote the story about Valerie Plame, perhaps it was even too far out for her to pursue. Miller appears to have been involved only in that her earlier stories were in part the basis for the interest in Niger-Iraq relationship. It was later revealed that it was Rchard Armitage and Karl Rove who were Novak's sources in the Bush Administration. Novak claimed that Armitage freely offered the information and indicated it would be useful to his investigative "Evans and Novak" style column. However, the revelations around the investigation of Plame's 'outing' does give an insight into how Miller used her access to high-level officials to obtain information for her stories and the questionable ethics of the close ties and relationships between journalist and information source.
In 2004 a Times editorial acknowledged that many of its stories had relied too heavily on Ahmed Chalabi an infamous Iraqi exile bent on regime change who even the White House had finally abandoned because he had been exposed as lacking trustworthiness. Later it was revealed that ten of the twelve stories the Times apologised for were written by Miller.
Welcome to FOX news!
Monday, October 20, 2008
CRISIS PUTS US AFLOAT IN THE SAME LIFEBOAT
COMMENTS ON
Editorial NY Times (October 20, 2008)
COLLATERAL DAMAGE
Today the NY Times takes up the impact of the financial crisis on the developing world. While the richest nations spend trillions to rescue their banks caused by years of deregulation, greed and excess (my words) they must also be prepared to help the poorer countries which did not cause the problem but are never the less its victims.
The developing nations in the third world are beginning to look like the innocent victim caught up in the global credit squeeze as battered world banks cut their credit lines to poor nations to shore up finances in their own back yard. The Times estimates that capital flows to emerging markets in these countries are expected to plummet by 30% this year.
The picture is bleak...exports from poorer nations are suffering because of weak markets in the developed world. For example we are importing less from Mexico as a result of our weaker economy here. At the same time, remittances from migrant workers who send a good portion of what they earn home--and are an important source of revenue in many third world countries-- are dropping fast. (Elsewhere, the Times reported recently that these same migrant workers who we were so worried about a few short months ago are now leaving the USA for their native homelands because they can not find work here. As these economic migrants return to their native lands they will place new stresses upon those already strained economies.)
The Times makes note of Eastern and Central Europe where banking is largely controlled by Western banks. They point out that Hungary needed 5 billion Euros, while Ukraine asked for 14 billion dollars from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) to prop up its financial system. In our hemisphere the Mexican peso dropped dramatically in reference to the dollar since August 08. (The exchange is currently @13 pesos per dollar vs this past August when it was about 10 pesos per dollar. ) While the Brazilian real and the Korean won have fallen as well. Pakistan, an important ally in the so-called 'war on terror' is said to need $4 billion to plug a whopping trade deficit hole. The times editorial belabors the "myopia" of the world's richest countries (rjk says: particularly the Bush-led USA which has looked particularly 'clueless' in these last weeks, as it follows, first the lead of Brown's Britain to support the worlds banks and then France's Sarkozy to field an International financial conference) as we scurry from pillar to post attempting ad hoc solutions which worsened the 'collective mess' (as the Times puts it so well). Less than two weeks ago, they state: "Washington and Brussels ("stupidly" rjkspeak) allowed Iceland's banks to go bust.
The Times concludes that the great financial powers, as they struggle to contain the disaster should not loose site of other poorer countries. Because in today's interconnected world we are all in the same life-boat and will float or founder together (in my words).
Editorial NY Times (October 20, 2008)
COLLATERAL DAMAGE
Today the NY Times takes up the impact of the financial crisis on the developing world. While the richest nations spend trillions to rescue their banks caused by years of deregulation, greed and excess (my words) they must also be prepared to help the poorer countries which did not cause the problem but are never the less its victims.
The developing nations in the third world are beginning to look like the innocent victim caught up in the global credit squeeze as battered world banks cut their credit lines to poor nations to shore up finances in their own back yard. The Times estimates that capital flows to emerging markets in these countries are expected to plummet by 30% this year.
The picture is bleak...exports from poorer nations are suffering because of weak markets in the developed world. For example we are importing less from Mexico as a result of our weaker economy here. At the same time, remittances from migrant workers who send a good portion of what they earn home--and are an important source of revenue in many third world countries-- are dropping fast. (Elsewhere, the Times reported recently that these same migrant workers who we were so worried about a few short months ago are now leaving the USA for their native homelands because they can not find work here. As these economic migrants return to their native lands they will place new stresses upon those already strained economies.)
The Times makes note of Eastern and Central Europe where banking is largely controlled by Western banks. They point out that Hungary needed 5 billion Euros, while Ukraine asked for 14 billion dollars from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) to prop up its financial system. In our hemisphere the Mexican peso dropped dramatically in reference to the dollar since August 08. (The exchange is currently @13 pesos per dollar vs this past August when it was about 10 pesos per dollar. ) While the Brazilian real and the Korean won have fallen as well. Pakistan, an important ally in the so-called 'war on terror' is said to need $4 billion to plug a whopping trade deficit hole. The times editorial belabors the "myopia" of the world's richest countries (rjk says: particularly the Bush-led USA which has looked particularly 'clueless' in these last weeks, as it follows, first the lead of Brown's Britain to support the worlds banks and then France's Sarkozy to field an International financial conference) as we scurry from pillar to post attempting ad hoc solutions which worsened the 'collective mess' (as the Times puts it so well). Less than two weeks ago, they state: "Washington and Brussels ("stupidly" rjkspeak) allowed Iceland's banks to go bust.
The Times concludes that the great financial powers, as they struggle to contain the disaster should not loose site of other poorer countries. Because in today's interconnected world we are all in the same life-boat and will float or founder together (in my words).
Monday, October 6, 2008
Exotic Pets For the Youngster?
American Academy of Pediatrics says, no to exotic pets for young ( those less than 5 year-old) children. What's exotic?
Hedgehogs, turtles, lizards, hamsters and baby chicks. Reason: these critters are more likely to scratch or claw their little friends and they can carry dangerous germs such as salmonella. In addition, these youngsters are more likely to put their fingers in their mouths. A bad combination. For more details see the October edition of Pediatrics.
Hedgehogs, turtles, lizards, hamsters and baby chicks. Reason: these critters are more likely to scratch or claw their little friends and they can carry dangerous germs such as salmonella. In addition, these youngsters are more likely to put their fingers in their mouths. A bad combination. For more details see the October edition of Pediatrics.
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