Saturday, October 3, 2015

PUTIN TO SYRIA: TO END CHAOS

AAn alternate view of Mr. Putin's actions in Syria.

President G. H. W. Bush's, Gulf War, his son, "junior" George Bush's illegal Iraq War, the Afghanistan War and the seemingly endless on-going (14 year) conflict in Afghanistan have all had their negative effects on neighboring Syria. In March of 2011, a severe drought possibly the effect of climate change, coinciding with an economic downturn, these as well as food shortages, and the "spill over" from the Iraq war may have been some of the many triggers that sparked an uprising in Syria...a nation riven by ethnic and religious differences. The despotic Assad government reacted to this event...or over reacted. It certainly mis-handled the demonstrations helping to careen the fragile nation from civil unrest into widespread protest marches and pubic disruptions. But it was the calculated covert actions of the USA"s CIA, as well as the overt monetary and direct military support given by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Quatar to a group of violent insurgents (we would call them "terrorists" here) which tipped the conflict into a generalized sectarian civlil war. In this war nations dominated by the Sunni branch of the Moslem faith (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates) are ranged against Shiite Moslems: the Shia Alawites under Assad in Syria, and Shiite Iran and Hesbollah in Lebanon. The USA has thus unwisely inserted itself AGAIN into the middle of what has become a violent religious conflict which it knows little of, and from which it has nothing to gain. Its meddling can only exacerbate the problem.

In March of 2011, our government seems to have reflexively engaged in the conflict simply to topple Mr. Assad. That goal, in a more historically and politically astute administration (perhaps such as that of the GHW Bush administration) would have paused as it questioned the effects of such a destabilizing act on the entire Middle East region. But Mr. Obama, ( and his coterie of female foreign policy advisors who seem to always choose to show their ability to "man-up" to any situation even when it is not advisable) and his then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton didn't get that far in their thinking. Only a short time earlier, they made the now demonstrably unwise decision to topple the Gaddafi regime in Libya. As a result of their ministrations that poor nation has devolved into chaos, where armed camps and warring tribal enclaves, death and destruction continue unabated. It is from Lybia that refugees pour out into frail boats plying the Mediterranean seeking succor in the west. The President's goal for Syria is on track to repeat the Lybia disaster. The Obmama Administrqtion's goal to remove Assad was probably unwise and unattainable even very early in the insurgency. But as more and more money, weapons and radicalized foreign troops surged into Syria, the idea of toppling the existing government, its police forces, and the infrastructure which served millions of Syrians and kept the peace, became less and less realistic and more and more foolish. At present, the anti-Assad movement is highly radicalized, fragmented and infiltrated with al Qaida, hyper-radical ISIS elements and jihadist fighters and terrorists drawn into the conflict with the money from the Gulf oil sheikdoms and that provided covertly by the USA.

President Obama, in the face of harsh criticism (much of which was deserved) did restrain the knee jerk Israeli supporters and neocon elements in his government ro limit the USA involvement to air strikes against ISIS targets in the eastern part of Syria. However, his mis-guided early covert (CIA) policy to destabilize the only existing and legitimate (Assad) Syrian government with arms, money and military support continues to this day. These USA policies secretly funded and hidden from Congressional purview may have had thr support of weak arguments very early in the conflict, but as the civil war has worn on and the players and situations have changed radically, now these USA policies are simply DUMB.

In early October, Russia's Mr. Putin began to transport to western Syria significant advanced military materiel, men, planes and other equipment to take a strong role in support of Mr. Assad's government which has been weakened by losses over the last four years. Mr. Assad is not a democratic savior, but he can be useful as a means to an end in Syria. It is wise to support him. He is a despot and strong man who has ruled in a ham-fisted manner to control a diverse and fractious nation. But he does head an actual functioning government. He is a legitimately elected leader with whom the world body of concerned nations can negotiate with and work with. On the other side, there is a diverse group of rabble-rousers, jihadist fighters, religious fanatics, terrorists......and chaos. Continued support of the insurgents to weaken and replace the Assad regime is foolish and will only lead to more refugees, more bloodshed. It will surely end in another nation bombed and degraded back into the "Stone Age" as Mr. George Bush so correctly described his intentions during his military adventures in Iraq---an adventure that has much to do with the present state of affairs in Syria.

Mr. Obama, should welcome the arrival of Mr. Putin's forces.... If domestic political reality makes it impossible to actually support his efforts, Mr. Obama should just stay out of his way. Mr. Putin seems to be the only leader who is actually taking some positive action in Syria that will ultimately benefit the Syrian people, alleviate the refugee disaster facing Europe, help to move the entire region...Lebanon, Israel, Iraq and Iran to a more peaceful solution. It is too bad that Putin can not speak English more effectively. He gets a (an unnecessary) bad press here in the USA.

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