COVID MORTALITY ALMOST 20 TIMES HIGHER IN WEST
USA HIGHEST MORTALITY, WHY?
On January 24, 2022 there were almost 5,000 deaths world wide from Covid 19 and it’s variants. Presently we have recorded a total of about 5.6 million deaths worldwide, or @ 5.6 million/7.9 billion population or (0.000709) or @ 709 deaths per million population. Western nations in this appraisal appear to have rates three times* the world average, while Far Eastern nations report rates of only one seventh *(14%) of the world rate, or about 20*times less than technically comparable western nations. Knowing if these data are valid and if so, why? could save many lives. (*See added data and revised conclusions in Addendum of January 30 below)
Based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, (2022) there seem to be wide variations in the mortality rate per unit population of Far Eastern nations and those of the west which analysis suggests as two distinct populations. Far Eastern Asian nations appear to have low mortality per unit population, or close to an average of 100 deaths per million population attributed to Covid, or about 1/7 of the world average. While western advanced nations ( in this compilation) reveal a Covid 19 mortality per unit population of close to 2000 per million, or almost three times the world average and nearly twenty times higher than selected Far Eastern Asian nations.* When graphed, the frequency distribution curve is skewed to the right (positive) indicating high value outliers in the distribution.
Also significant is that at first glance China appears to have an extraordinarily low rate (3.5/mil) which might suggest its methods of compiling data are radically different than those of most of the rest of the world. However, on closer examination Chinese data falls well within the normal distribution for other Far East Asian nations. This disparity in mortality rates for China must be found elsewhere.
Data
I examined seven (7) Far Eastern Asian nations and their Covid deaths reported per million population as of January 22, 2022. These were: China (3.5 deaths per million); Taiwan 34.4, Laos 70, Cameroon 72, South Korea125, Japan 146, Vietnam: 373 deaths per million.
Data: Mean= 117.7, Median =72, Range= 370, Std Dev s= 113.6.
I evaluated 17 Western advanced nations for the same data on the same date. These were: Germany, 1396 deaths per million, Sweden 1560, Austria 1570, France 1800, Portugal 1887, Spain 1938, Greece 2071, Russia 2189, UK 2274, Italy 2352, Belgium 2487, USA 2590 mortality per million population.
Data: Mean:=2009.5, Median= 2004.5, Range =1194, Std Dev s= 367.9.
Comment
Asian nations excerpted here have an average mortality of about 117.7 /million population. While the mortality per unit population (million) in modern western nations is 2009.5 per million population. In comparison to world mortality per unit population in millions (709 per million) selected Far Eastern Asian nations (117.7 per million) suffer from (117.7/709 =0.166) 17% or only 1/6 of the deaths in the world as a whole. While western nations suffered from almost three times more deaths (2009.5/799= 2.8) than the world average. The 17 western nations in this comparison (2009.5/117.7= 17) experienced seventeen times more deaths per unit population than Eastern Asian nations did.
What might be the cause of such a huge variation in mortality? Far Eastern Asian nations are more genetically homogeneous, more structured and more compliant to regulations than we typically find in the west. With their dense population centers and regular outbreaks of viral infections —they have become inured to wearing masks, avoiding interpersonal contact, rigorously tracking contacts of infectious individuals and perhaps have simply been more adept at avoiding infection. Then too are they younger and have fewer comorbidities? All these would tend to lower infection rates and mortality, but would they be enough to skew the figures so widely? It seems possible some other factor may be operating here.
Could it be that Asian populations (particularly the Chinese) have some unrecognized genetic factor or perhaps higher levels of specific antibodies derived from previous exposure to common corona viruses such SARS and MERS and the most recent Covid 19 “bat” virus? In fact, the “source” virus of this most recent pandemic , the SARS Covid 19 virus, is endemic in Asian bat populations, and perhaps mild infections from this source were circulating in these populations more commonly than known or reported.
Closer examination of the mortality rate in western nations also raises some questions. The USA has the highest overall mortality, with well over 800,000 deaths, as well as the highest mortality per unit population with over 2590 per million. Other nations such as Germany, Austria and France report considerably lower rates per million: 1396, 1570, 1800 respectfully…Why?
Why should there be are nearly 2 deaths from Covid 19 in the USA ( 2590/1396 = 1.9) for every one in Germany. Or why does Germany have nearly half of the Covid mortality of the USA?
Can this be related to the age structure of the population, or prevalence of comorbidities? Or might this be the result of the slow response of the Biden Administration to more wider testing, availability of masks, and availability of therapeutics, and other Covid response difficulties?
Though this analysis is by no means a through evaluation or an advanced analysis of these data (that must be left to others) these passing observations are of interest and deserve further more rigorous evaluation. Answers to these inquiries may save lives.
*ADDENDUM…January 30, 2022 further evaluation of Covid mortality data. More Asian and western nations evaluated.
REVISED ASIAN NATION COVID MORTALITY
Revised Data: ( Mortality/Million population) 1-Myanmar =0.44 mortality per million (m/mil), 2-China = 3.4 m/mil, 3-Hong Kong = 28 m/mil, 4- Taiwan =36, 5-Cameroon =69, 6-Laos =72, 7-East Timor= 90, 8-South Korea =127, 9-Japan =149, 10-Singapore =156, 11-Cambodia =181, 12-Brunei =223, 13-Thailand =315, 14-Vietnam =384, 15-Indonesia =529. [Mean =157 deaths per unit (mil)population, Median =127, Mode= none, Range= 528, and Std Dev. s =151.]
The resulting histogram (frequency distribution graph) revealed data skewed to the right, with eleven out of the fifteen data points (or 73% of values falling within 0-210 covid deaths per million population. While three (3) nations fell between 210- 520 , and one (1) 420 to 630. Analysis of the frequency distribution statistics revealed that 68.3% of the data points fell between 6.5 to 309 covid deaths per million, while at the 95.5% confidence level between -144 to 459 covid deaths per million. From this, it is apparent that China and Myanmar’s low rates fall just beyond the 68% confidence level and well within the 95.5% level of a standard distribution.
REVISED WESTERN NATION COVID MORTALITY
Data (Mortality/million) 1-USA =2590 m/mil, 2-Belgium =2578, 3-Italy =2352, 4-UK =2274, 5-Russia =2189, 6-Greece =2071, 7-Spain =1938, 8-Portugal =1887, 9-France =1800, 10-Austria= 1570, 11-Sweden =1560, 12-Germany =1369, 14-Switzerland =1482, 15-Denmark = 633, 16-Netherlands =1217, 17 Norway =266. New calculations: Mean of 1768, Median 1800, Mode none, Range 2324 and Std.Dev.s 660.
The new data reveals that 68.3% of the data entries fall between 1108 m/mil to 2428 m/ mil, while 95.5% of data points fall between 448 and 3088 m/mil. The histogram indicates that eight (8) out of the seventeen (17) data points or 47% fell into the frequency group: 1166 to 2066, while 6 nations or 35% fell within the grouping: 2066 to 2966 .
The histogram or frequency distribution graph for the Western nations was nearly symmetric with a mild skew to the left.
Revised Introductory summary.
On January 24, 2022 there were almost 5,000 deaths world wide from Covid 19 and it’s variants. Presently we have recorded a total of about 5.6 million deaths worldwide, or @ 5.6 million/7.9 billion population or (0.000709) or @ 709 deaths per million population. Western nations, with this addendum and revised appraisal (Mean=1768 m/mil) appear to have rates (1768/709= 2.5) two and one-half times the world average, while Far Eastern nations report revised rates (Mean = 157 deaths /mil) of (709/157= 0.22) or about one fifth ( actually 22%) of the world rate. In comparison, western nations (1768/157 = 11.26 ) suffer from more than 11 times those of Asian nations with comparable medical technology. For every Asian death to Covid there are more than eleven covid deaths in comparable western nations. Knowing if these data are valid and if so, why could save many lives.
Thus after a more inclusive evaluation of both Western and Asian nations the results appear to continue to support the contention that Western nations have a so far unexplained, more than ten times higher rate of covid mortality than those of advanced western nations.
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