FLORIDA METAMORPHOSIS

Not more than a few years ago, my Florida neighbor and golf buddy Frankie Smith, a New Hampshire snow bird, related to me how many new immigrants were coming "down Florida way" each year.

“Every day we get another one-thousand new residents down here,” said Frankie, as we sat at an open air bar under the shade of an ancient palmetto which rustled pleasantly in the gentle sea breeze. Twisting around on his bar stool, Frankie tipped his misted beer mug to a place across the white concrete strip of the AIA Coastal Highway.

“See there,” he said, pointing the foam dripped mug toward a new development being carved out of former sea-side sand dunes which were once covered in ragged palms, bunch grass and saw palmetto. He quickly retrieved the mug to gulp down the last of the cold brew.

"That 'ere place buts right back up to my back yard," complained Frankie, wiping the foam from his thin lips with the back of his hand.

I looked where he pointed. A big red and white sign tacked to posts at the highway-edge blared the name: “First Coast Condos”. Another line boasted that of its planned 200 units 150 had been sold already.

“Three-hundred-fifty thousand every year? Why that’s more than a million people every three years! That’s like adding the population of NY City every twenty-four years or so,” I said, swivelling around to avert my eyes from the construction site to gaze at our well-endowed young bar maid who was vigorously cleaning beer mugs in the bar sink.

How things have changed in a few years. As Frankie says, "a lot of beer has run through the taps at that place" since that day. Today, in 2009 the picture is very different. I don't know what happened to that bar maid, where she works now but that bar closed in 2008. And this year--2009--was the first year since the late 1940s that the population of Florida did not grow….in fact it declined by nearly 60,000 people! The drop of population was the greatest in annual population since 1901 when such data was first tabulated. So the recent recession has brought real change to Florida. For the a full treatment of these data see: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/30/us/30florida.html?_r=1&em

And regarding the First Coast Condos, the new development across AIA Highway---. It was never completed. Lack of interest and funds. Today it stands only partially occupied. One ofits parking lots remains a muddy unsurfaced ground with a rusting bulldozer and a great mound of topsoil gowing rank tall reeds. The few residents complain about the exhorbitant community fees, much more than what they expected to pay. Since now there are fewer than 100 residents when more than two hundred were planned.

The New York Times article on Florida by Damien Cave (August 29, 2009) underscores what any southern sojourner knew, that Florida was one of the most rapidly growing states…and most who knew it (except the builders and real-estate agents) thought it was growing too fast for its own good. The NY Times piece states that in 2000, Florida was the fourth most populous state with a population of 16 million. Of course it’s a big state in area, and much of the northern and western regions are still forest, marsh and dry pine plains, where Brahama cattle still roam. But take a Google Earth tour over the southern coastal areas and see what a century of nearly unrestrained development by the "good-ole-boy network" could do. It is eye-popping to see the vast networks of roads, and oh-so-close together rooftops and vast parking lots all extending like a cancer growth over the countryside to every place that is within smelling distance of a bit of waterside, shore area, marsh or even damp soil. The view is a testament what stupidity and greed can do to a lovely landscape.

According to William Frey a population specialist at Brooking Institution, the census data in December will no doubt confirm the findings of the striking population decline and if they are indeed accurate, the information will be a great blow to the state, states Frey, "since the whole Florida economy was based on migration flows.” He states that declines in population tend to compound the ravages of economic downturns such as the present recession. "They have a negative effect on the quality of life," he states. This is a fact for cities in the Rust Belt of the mid west, agricultural northern New York State, as well as sunny Hollywood Park, Florida. But the NY Times author notes that Florida is different, “Florida, in particular, was not built for emptying.” He reminds us that since 1924, a state constitution amendment banned the dreaded income tax. That was one more appealing factor for in migration. One of the major reasons many retirees abandon their home states and become Florida “homesteaders” was the savings that accrue to living in a “no income tax state”. But in those halcyon days the state of Florida made up this loss of revenue by relying heavily on sales taxes and property taxes which are closely linked to population growth and new housing starts.


But now with housing prices plummeting and housing sales about non-existent the State's sources of revenue are sharply crimped. As a result of the decreasing tax base, municipalities and cities have been forced to cut staff and slash budgets. Unfortuneatley these changes are not likely to encourage people to stay in the state. In fact, there has been an uptick of what some Floridians are calling “halfbacks”. These are disenchanted Florida immigrants who have pulled up stakes and turn back north…but do not go all the way---winding up in the lower tax areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

But back in Florida in 2009, according to the NY Times piece, Broward County schools were forced to slash their staff by one hundred teachers and cut the school budget from $5 billion to $3.6 billion, that is a 28% drop in budget. The county commissioners reduced library hours and closed parks early and the sheriff’s office has cut 177 positions. These are quality of life changes.

But hope springs eternal as some say…and the hope of the “baby-boom” population to choose Florida as their parents did, and of course optimists expect a return of population increases when the economy picks up. But when will that happen? What effects will higher energy costs and a slow starting and weaker economy have on the population boom and on Florida? We must wait and see. Perhaps a bit of a hiatus in the growth boom might not be such a bad development. Frankie thinks so as he looks on his back yard.

rjk