IRAN AND THE US: TIME FOR DETENTE

In:How to Talk To Iran, Roger Cohen (NY Times Opinion, Sept 16, 2009) http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/opinion/17iht-edcohen.html Roger Cohen, who spent recent weeks in Iran commenting on the election there and has (thankfully and rightly) focused his recent op-ed pieces on Iran, states in 'How to Talk To Iran" that the US must abandon its “psychotic mistrust” and “broaden its context” in its dealings with Iran.

Cohen summarizes the recent revelations concerning the “new” Qum plant southeast of Tehran and asks, why build a new buried plant with a capacity of 3000 centrifuges, if the 54,000 centrifuge Natantz is at less than 15% capacity now? Though the new plant is now empty, and Iran has adhered to the letter of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requirements of notification of a new facility six months prior to introduction of nuclear material, Cohen concludes that the new Qum plant reveals that the Iranian enrichment program has “attained a sacred status as a symbol of Iranian independence”. I add that it also reveals a great deal of insecurity. With the real threats of Israeli attack, aggressive US rhetoric (yes even from President Obama) present US military encirclement, existing UN sanctions, and continuing military, naval, and CIA probes into Iran by the US, Iranian fears are understandable and should have been expected. Cohen predicts sanctions will not work and are only “a feel good option”.

Even Defense Secretary Robert Gates, a "W" Bush apointee, in a televised news interview, this last week- had the same opinion. He stated that sanctions can not work, and added that the military option will only give us a few years at most--then Iran would be back where we are today. Such an outcome is not worth it for the ultimate cost of a military strike. Gates added, "The only way to acheive our goal is to change the opinion of the Iranian government." Was that a vieled threat for "regime change" I hope not. We don't want to go down that road again. Let's hope he meant that the carrot and stick approach of diplomacy would be his choice.

Returning to Cohen's argument, he states that Iran has now has passed the enrichment threshold and the "zero enrichment" demand is no longer a realistic option. Cohen believes a nuclear armed Iran is dangerous..but Iran need not go to that extreme with the proper offers--I do not quote his here but perhaps he is suggesting with a relaxation of the virulent anti-Iranian rhetoric, a mutual security agreement and more economic contact we can move them toward a sense of security which will obviate the need for Iranian weapons. See below Flynt and Hillary Leverett.

Furthermore, the Iranians are within IAEA rules, if they wish only for an enrichment facility devoted to peaceful nuclear power. It is to this level that Iran states and appears to wish to reach--- and for Cohen, this is a possible basis for an agreement.

I heartily agree. Now is the time for President Obama to launch a Nixon style opening to the in this case the Middle East. Iran distrusts us and we distrust them. These mutual feelings are a prescription for disaster. B oth President Obama and President Ahmadinejad are faced with domestic politcal oposition on the home front. They are both fearful of appearing weak. But a bold move from Obama, one in which the five-power-talks on first of October, range beyond the immediate problems of Iran's nuclear aspirations, but enter into the whole gamut of issues between the two nations. Where they agree and where they disagree.

We must not go down the slippery slope toward military options or what Senator John McCAin and the neo-cons are suggesting ---again--"regime change". Such an adventure at this juncture would be a political, military and economic disaster for the entire world. The one nation which sees itself profiting from such a development in the US would also suffer grievously. Let's not go there.

About ten days later Roger Cohen, brought the idea up again in his NY Times, piece “The US-Iranian Triangle”, September 27, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/28/opinion/28iht-edcohen.html.

Finally, the Leveretts give some very good, plain-spoken advice to Obama in:
“How to Press the Advantage With Iran”, See: Flynt and Hillary Leverett (NY Times Opinion, Sept 28, 2009)
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/29/opinion/29leverett.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ref=opinion

Flynt et Hillary Leverett, were members of National Security Council under George Bush they plead for a type of grand bargain with Iran (See Le Monde, October 1, 2009--a translation is available on this blog--above) of a type of global accord that would addresss all the US-Iranian issues and was on their table during the 2003 period. According to the Levertts "On that basis, America and Iran would forge a comprehensive framework for security as well as economic cooperation — something that Washington has never allowed the five-plus-one group to propose. Within that framework, the international community would work with Iran to develop its civil nuclear program, including fuel cycle activities on Iranian soil, in a transparent manner rather than demanding that Tehran prove a negative — that it’s not developing weapons. A cooperative approach would not demonize Iran for political relationships with Hamas and Hezbollah, but would elicit Tehran’s commitment to work toward peaceful resolutions of regional conflicts."

To me such a plan would work...the Iranians who have suffered greviously at the hands of the Americans in the past: See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Premier_Mossadeq_and_his_overthrow

A BRIEF HISTORY OF US-IRANIAN INTERACTION 1953-PRESENT
Gleaned from the above:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Premier_Mossadeq_and_his_overthrow

In 1953, prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq was overthrown by a CIA financed and organized coup, in what has been called "a crucial turning point both in Iran's modern history and in U.S. Iran relations."

In spring and summer 1953, the United States and Britain, through a covert operation of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) called Operation Ajax, conducted from the US Embassy in Tehran, helped organize a coup d'état to overthrow the Moussadeq government. The operation initially failed and the Shah fled to Italy, but a second attempt succeeded with the Shah returned and Mosaddeq imprisoned.

US support of repressive Palavi regime after the 1979 coup.

US support of Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war. US gives green light to Iraq to attack and supplies Iraq with intelligence, sattelite images, weaponry, poison gas, biological weapons, such as sarin and VX gas.

Hostage crisis and subsequent sanctions and freezing of Iranian assets ($12 billion dollars worth).

1988 US attack on Iranian Oil platforms

1988 July 3, 1988 US Aegis class warship "Vincennes" cruising illegally within Iranian coastal waters shoots down an Iranian Airbus commercial passenger plane with loss of 290 lives. The US claimed it was an accident. US government did not appologise and later, President George Bush later honors the Vincennes' captain with an honorific and medal.

1995 Clinton imposes total embargo on US companies dealing with Iran and nations which trade with Iran.

2002 President George W. Bush cites Iran in Axis of Evil.

2003 Just prior to the Iraq invasion, the Iranian government sent a message to President Bush which contained overtures of peace and a "grand bargain" to resolve all outstanding issues. President Bush never responded to the overture from Iran. Many considered it a mistake and a missed opportunity.

2003 GWB begins illegal incursions into Iran from Iraq by flights of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV)to obtain imagery of Iran.

On May 8, 2008, President Amadadinejad sent a personal letter to then President Bush to propose new ways to end the nuclear dispute. Bush and his team dismissed the letter as a ploy and did not respond. Bush continuted bellicose responses and rumors indicated he had decided on an attack of Iran. "President Bush has developed a casus belli in order to prepare public opinion for an attack, focused on three reasons: claims that Iran supports attacks on US troops in Iraq, claims that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, and claims that Iran could become a dominant power in the region and destabilise pro-US governments in Israel, Jordan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and thereby endanger oil supplies.[93]" See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Premier_Mossadeq_and_his_overthrow

Obama Administration: continued overflights and drones from both Afghanistan and Iraq have penetrated Iranian air space.

Get the picture?


rjk