Pat Buchanan, wrote a piece today in WMD Commentary (June 18, 2019) “War with Iran would be Trump’s War”. In which he correctly warns such a conflict would be both a political and economic disaster. Being fought in and around the Persian Gulf— the waterway through which the world’s oil flows— an Iran war would cause a worldwide recession and trigger forces which would surely endanger any chances Trump had for reelection. Candidate Trump rightly excoriated the neocons and those who got us into wars of choice in Iraq and Afghanistan. Breaking that promise would diminish his base support.
Trump’s game with Iran—one of “maximum pressure” is an attempt to force Iran into a “new and better” deal on “nuclear technology and disarmament”—and their “footprint”in the region—-though they have no nuclear weapons. But that strategy can go only so far. Trump pressure has put great stress on the Iranian economy and as in Newtonian physics (Third Law) Trump pressure has engendered an equal and opposite response—-more “maximum” resistance from Iranian leaders. The “pressure” gambit now appears to have moved into a phase which is a looser for Trump.
Iran is not Iraq. We knew at the time ot the Iraq invasion (for nonexistent WMD) that Iraq was a paper tiger. (Perhaps that was one good reason why it was singled out for US invasion.) But even as a “paper tiger” Iraq cost us trillions upon trillions of tax dollars, and a decade in which or governments ignored domestic and infrastructure needs. There were as well the thousands of our own young dead and wounded. The fact that we are still stuck there after all these years and that we have gained nothing. The war generated only greater national debt and sad additions to our lists of war dead and wounded.
Iran is not a paper tiger and a war in thee times larger, mountainous and sophisticated Persia would be far worse than what we experienced in Iraq.
So for those in the Trump camp who think that they can pressure Iran into a “better deal” they had better be very careful as they pursue that now passé strategy—since they are in effect carrying around a lighted cigarette while looking for a leaky gas canister in a closed garage. The conflagration would end their careers and repeat a horrible and costly disaster for this nation.
The “pressure strategy” is over...diplomacy is needed now. But that requires President Trump to dump unrepentant neocon John Bolton and to begin to think about normalizing relations with Iran... Now that development would make him a shoo in for reelection!
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