Sunday, August 16, 2020

Fauci Romney and Fallacious Covid Comparisons

And What They Reveal About the Authors

In a “Chron” article (August 15, 2020) “No way to Spin That”....Senator Romney (R U) attacks the Trump administration on the Coronavirs death rate.. channeling Dr. Antony Fauci who made the same statement in an earlier interview elsewhere.
Romney states:
Short term, I think it's fair to say we really have not distinguished ourselves in a positive way by how we responded to the crisis when it was upon us," Romney said in a video interview with the Sutherland Institute. "And the proof of the pudding of that is simply that we have 5 percent of the world's population but 25 percent of the world's deaths due to covid-19.” 

Dr. Anthony Fauci made the same fallacious comparison or false equivalence—such arguments are very common in general parlance and  journalism and in politics. But should not appear in any scientific related discussion. Such comparisons are a form of illogical reasoning,  I wrote a blog concerning this issue (see earlier posts).  Fauci is supposed to be an eminent scientist and should know better,  but Romney is a politician simply  parroting what he thought sounded “scientific”.  But he is not sophisticated enough to know that his statement  is actually meaningless. 

What’s wrong with the Romney/Fauci comparison? The USA does comprise about 5% of the world population but its is not valid to claim that its covid mortality rate (about 170,000) is validly relatable to the world death toll attributable to this disease  (about 770,000 individuals).  That latter number includes deaths in such diverse populations all over the world infected by the disease at a much later date, are populations so vastly different from the USA culturally, economically, genetically and politically as well as being situated in isolated geographical zones so that a comparison is not valid.  

So can we make a better more reasonable comparison.  Yes. It is possible.  For example both the European Union (about 350 million population) and the USA (about 320 million population) were affected with the Corona virus about the same time. The USA (tragically) has a death toll of about 170,000 related to Covid 19 while the EU has suffered about 200,000 deaths.   Thus the EU is also about 5% of the world population and its death rate is @ 26% of world death rate is comparable to the USA at  25%.  Both entities have similar populations and cultures, are similarly highly advanced, technologically modern, affluent political entities with comparable health care facilities and democratic governments.

Thus the implication by Romney (and Fauci) that the USA and President Trump are somehow remiss or “not distinguished in a positive way” due to the fact that our death rate comprises 25% of world deaths simply does not stand up to scrutiny when we learn that another similar population has the very same or slightly higher death rate.  We are not undistinguished. 

What does this reveal about Romney and Fauci?  

The decision to use a fallacious argument (choosing to compare apples with oranges) rather than the more valid comparison (apples with apples) reveals more about Fauci and Romney than what they actually stated.  The choice of a false argument over a valid one indicates that both these men would rather misconstrue data, misinform and attempt to mislead the reading population the citizenry and voters for venal base personal or political reasons.  Both are attempting to smear the reputation of their own nation and its leadership.  Romney is a politician who has descended to similar positions in the past...revealing a vindictive, vengeful and unpleasant nature. 

 Dr Fauci is another case altogether. 
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