POPULATION AGE, OBESITY,URBANIZATION: FACTORS WHICH MAY INCREASE COVID MORTALITY PER UNIT POPULATION.
Earlier reports here in have documented the disparity in mortality rates due to the Covid 19 pandemic. Mortality evaluated using deaths per unit population vary widely.
Cursory examinations of these data sources revealed great discrepancies between reporting nations. Asian, and particularly Far Eastern, nations report significantly lower rates of mortality per unit population than other nations.
A comparison between Asian and western European nations revealed a disparity even more stark. For example China (CCP) reported a mortality rate due to Covid 19 (and variants) of 3.4 deaths per million population (as of 2/10/22) while the USA reported 2765 deaths per million, over the same period, or for the USA reported deaths per million were greater than 800 times what China reported. Both nations have highly sophisticated medical and technological infrastructure and exceptional medical care. What could cause such differences? Though not all national comparisons are so divergent, the averages support the fact that there are great differences in mortality data. What factors might generate such results? The answer to that question may be useful to those who are responsible for national response to this world crisis.
In this report I summarize the results of an inquiry into several factors which may effect Covid mortality in populations Data was sourced from various sites on the internet. Mortality rates were downloaded on 2-10-22.
Covid mortality per unit population (per million population) for 155 world nations was tabulated and compared to several factors:
1.Urbanization level as percent of the reporting nation’s urbanized population
2. Median age in percent,
3.Percent obesity of the population
4. Vaccination rate in percent,
Description of Graphic Results
1-An XY scatter graph of Percent of Population Urbanized ; Y axis World Nation Covid Mortality per million (N =155) and X Axis Percent Population Urbanized (data downloaded 2/10/22) A Pearson r =0.34 indicates a positive weak level of correlation And a slope calculation of the scatter graph reveals slope = 19. Thus for every one percent increase in percent urbanization of the population the unit population mortality rate increases by 19 per million population. Thus, the present data (2-10-22) indicates that mortality tends to be higher in nations with more of its population urbanized settings.
2- An XY scatter graph of Population Median Age ; Y axis =World Nation Covid Mortality per million (N =155); X Axis = Median Age of Population (data downloaded 2/10-15/22) A Pearson r =0.58 correlation test indicates a positive, moderate level of correlation. And regression line slope calculation of the scatter graph: Slope = 74. The plotted regression line indicates that for every year of increase of a reporting nation’s median population Covid mortality increases by 74 deaths per million population. This graph depicts a mortality rate increasing from left to right. Starting at median age of 15 years and 13 Covid deaths per million the data (and regression line) rise to a rate of (30 X 74 = 2,200) 2,200 deaths per million in a population with a median age of 30 years. In populations reporting a median age of 45 years, the death per unit population rises to 3,300 deaths per million population. Clearly nations with older median populations are more vulnerable and reported higher mortality to Covid.
3-An XY scatter graph of Percent of Population Clinically Obese . Y axis = World Nation Covid Mortality per million (N =155), while the X Axis =percent of population clinically obese. These data were downloaded 2/10/22. Pearson r = 0.43 indicates a positive moderate level of correlation And a slope calculation of the scatter graph reveals Slope = 57. For every one percent increase in percent obesity of the population the rate of mortality increases by 57 per million population. According to these data mortality tends to increase in populations with higher percentages of obese individuals.
4- An XY scatter graph of Percent Population Vaccinated (at least once); Y axis =World Nation Covid Mortality per million (N =155) and X Axis = Percent Population Vaccinated (data downloaded 2/10/22) A Pearson r = 0.37 And a slope calculation of the scatter graph is slope = 16. For every one percent increase in vaccination rate mortality increases by 16 per million population. Mortality tends to increase in populations with higher percent vaccinations. This is counter intuitive. Though the correlation is weak it is clear that a group of about 20 nations with which report 0 to to 20 percent vaccination rates also claim very low mortality rates (very low rates (< 200 per mil) mortality). These may small, isolated, or rural nations where the virus had not reached yet or where reporting was weak, or similar circumstances. Between 20 and 40 % vaccination rate, the Slope of 16 indicates average mortality rate may climb to @500 per million. From there the mortality increases to over 1000 at about 70% vaccination rate.
These results seem to suggest that more affluent technically sophisticated nations may have both higher vaccination rates and higher Covid mortality . This may be a result of the tendency of more affluent nations are more likely to be vaccinated, but these same nations also harbor populations higher in median age, with higher rates of obesity, and live in more dense urbanized settings— and these factors weigh heavily of the mortality rate increasing Covid mortality.
Summary
These Covid mortality data as of February 10, 2022 indicate higher mortality in nations where populations are more urbanized, in nations of higher median age (older) and in nations with higher percentages of obese individuals. Interestingly, vaccination rate is NOT correlated with lower mortality as one would expect. The results seem to suggest that more affluent nations may report data of both higher vaccination rates and higher Covid mortality. Higher vaccination rates, may be associated with nations of higher median age, suffering higher rates of obesity, and live in more dense urbanized settings— and these factors appear to weigh heavily on the mortality rate, increasing the reported Covid mortality rate.
This in no way suggests that vaccinations are not effective. It only underscore the difficulty in evaluating it in statistical population studies among many other
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