COVID IN CHINA: LOW DEATH RATE-NATURAL IMMUNITY?

 LOW COVID DEATHS CORRELATE WITH PROXIMITY TO WUHAN CHINA 

Evidence Of Long Term Covid-Like Virus Circulating In Far East Populations?

XY Scatter Graphs On Asian Covid Mortality: Positive Correlation,  Low Mortality Near Wuhan  

ABSTRACT Analysis of graphic data which plotted Covid mortality rates per unit population in Asian nations against geographic distance from Wuhan China indicate a correlation exists. Low mortality rates are associated with geographic proximity to Wuhan China, while significantly higher rates of mortality in Asian nations occurs in those further away from Wuhan, China.  This may seem counter intuitive. Though other causes may operate, these data (were they validated) could be interpreted to suggest that Covid like bat viruses may have been circulating in these far eastern populations for some time—providing a level of natural immunity which protected the population from the most severe responses to the Covid 19 outbreak of December 2019. Long term presence in the population may have provided time for evolution of many virus strains.  It may also give credence to the hypothesis that the source of the virus was a natural one from long circulating viruses—as China insists—that there was no lab virus manipulation and no lab leak at Wuhan. 

Method 

Using ExCell, the Covid mortality rate per unit (one million) population of 42 Asian Nations was accessed from the internet on 2-10-22. These data were compared to the geographic dstance from Wuhan, China. These data were plotted on an XY scatter graph to evaluate the possibility that Covid mortality (per million population) may be in some way related to proximity of central China and the CCP which has one of the  lowest reported Covid mortality rates per unit population. The graph was arranged with the Y axis  scaled in mortality from 0 (Covid deaths per million) to 4500 (deaths per million) in intervals of 500 deaths per million.  The X axis was scaled in miles from Wuhan China ( Wuhan being 0) in 1000 miles increments from 0 miles to 6000 miles (9600km).  

The graphic results (unable to be reproduced here) indicate a scatter of points rising slowly then more steeply in a moderate positive correlation from a point at 0 distance (miles) and 3.4 mortality on the left,  to a maximum scatter of graph points at over 4000 deaths per million at about 4000 miles (6400km) distance from Wuhan. The scatter of data points drops to about 1500 mortality /mil  on the Y  axis at approximately 4300 miles (6880km) distance from Wuhan,  while a single data point shows up at  about 250 deaths per million and 5500 miles (8800 km) distant..  A Pearson sigma (s) test produced a correlation value of 0.38 (Pearson sigma test =0.38) suggesting moderate positive correlation. The slope of a calculated linear regression line (slope = 0.20) indicates thatr for every increment on the X axis there is an increase of 0.20 increments on the Y axis.  Thus at 1000 miles from Wuhan,(0.2 x 1000=200)  the average Covid Mortality indicated by the graph indicates an increased of mortality of 200 per million population,  The regression line rises gently from left to right at a rate of 200 deaths per million for each 1000 miles (1600km).  

Description of Graph

The graph indicates that mortality per unit population within 1000 miles (1600km) of Wuhan China recorded very low Covid mortality.  Mortality in this area ranges from single digits up to @200 deaths per million.  In the range of 1000 miles to 2000 miles (1600km -3200km) from Wuhan mortality per million averaged about 400 per million, and  ranged from less than 100 to about 1000 deaths.  In the range fro 2000 miles (3200km) to 3000 miles (4,800 km) mortality ranged from below 100 deaths to 1200 deaths per million.  The graph showed a moderate positive  correlation Pearson r = 0.38, and a slope of a regression line of 0.20.  

The largest spread of mortality from 250 deaths to 4500 deaths occurs in the range of 3000 miles to 4000 miles (4800-6400km) distance from Wuhan, China and average at this distance of about 1400 deaths per million population . 

At 4000 to 5000 miles ( 6400km-8000km) distance from Wuhan in central China the data points fall to 1500 deaths with an estimated average value of about 600 deaths per million.  

A single data point appears at 5500 (8800km) miles distant fro Wuhan, registering @ 250 deaths per million. 

The graphIc representation of mortality vs distance from Wuhan support the conclusion that areas in the Far East, perhaps originating in China can be characterized as having low mortality rates….in many cases of a severity no worse than the common annual flu. The graph supports a conclusion that lower mortality rates are correlated with geographic distances closer to Wuhan.

Discussion

These data indicate, counter intuitively,  that the area where the Covid pandemic virus first appeared (central China in the city of Wuhan) and geographically surrounding areas have the lowest rates of mortality, rather than higher than other areas as might be expected.  One interpretation of the graphic results may be that perhaps these far eastern Asian populations in close proximity to China  had been exposed to covid like (endemic bat) viruses for long periods of time and developed a  natural immunity based on long term exposure to similar strains of the virusy.  Western and other nations geographically distant from this area, having no exposure to covid like bat viruses, report mortality rates which rises in some cases to nearly 1000 times that experienced in China. The other possible conclusion is related to the origin of the covid virus.  Was it manipulated by virology experimenters or did it arise naturally? 

Were these results to be supported by more in depth  studies i.e. of the seemingly  mild  response of far eastern populations to Covid,  it would seem to support the hypothesis  that a Covid 19-like  virus originating in the bat populations of southern China may  have been circulating in these human populations for some time prior to the outbreak of Covid 19 in December of 2019.  If Far eastern populations have a natural immunity based on their exposure to the circulation of covid like the virus over a long period of time prior to the outbreak…it could support the hypothesis that the virus was indeed a natural phenomenon arising in a genetic pool of infected individuals.   This would support the hypothesis that covid like viruses may have slowly evolved naturally as infections spread more widely, eventually evolving into a new more virulent more transmissible variant which broke out in Wuhan, China in 2019.  

China’s insistence that Covid 19 arose naturally from circulating Corona viruses and there  was no Wuhan “lab leak” may be supported by such a study.