August 11, 2023
The Maui Fires were a result of a concatenation of weather and geographic phenomena: Hurricane Dora, El Nino weather, 60 MPH winds, steep slopes, narrow windy canyons, adiabatic heated dry air, seasonally dry brush-lands, vulnerable electric utility poles, limited coastal roads, poor disaster preparation, and over population.
The tragic fires on the Island of Maui have killed at least 60 people, with over 1,000 still missing. The conflagrations burned about 80% of the city of Lahaina, located on the north west coast that island. This tragic WEATHER event like so many other recent normal atmospheric phenomena has been grasped by the climate propagandists as additional “evidence” used to advance their political, and self-serving agendas. Too many of these folks are willing to sacrifice scientific rigor for a cheap form of self-aggrandizement. Others are part of the lucrative “climate science” “cottage industry” which actively label every unusual or exceptional atmospheric event or phenomena a “sure sign” of cataclysmic anthropogenic global warming or climatic change.
Of course these “propaganda practitioners” gain immediate notoriety as a result of their wild unsubstantiated claims, which attract the uninitiated who read their exaggerated reports, build up the “hits” they get on their posts, and perhaps their efforts result in a new government contract, a promotion to “Associate Prof”, or a lucrative government grant. Yes, our most recent government is in collusion with these practitioners too.
So I am driven to correct the misinformation regarding this tragedy and put the facts out there for all to read.
Maui is a fifty mile long and twenty-six mile wide volcanic Island in the Hawaii archipelago. Maui is the result of the emergence from the sea bed of two extinct shield-cone volcanoes, both of which are over 1.3 million years old. As all the islands in the chain, Maui was generated by a “hot spot” in the mantle of the Earth over which the Pacific crust has been moving for many millions of years. After Hawaii, the youngest and “big island”, Maui follows next in line. The chain, which stretches out to the northwest, consists of Molokai, Oahu, Kaui, and the most northerly and smallest, Ni’ihau.
Maui island is shaped like a figure “8” which is somewhat tilted to the northwest. The island was formed by the eruption and emergence of two volcanoes from the sea bed at slightly different times. The smaller, older, western volcano is Mauna Kahalawai (or “West Maui Mt”) with a summit at 5800 feet, it forms the top of the figure “8”. Mauna Kahalawai is an extinct volcano which last erupted more than one million years ago. Ironically, the summit of this volcano is one of the wettest places on Earth, accumulating nearly 10 meters (@ 30 feet) of rain (or almost 394 inches) each year. The torrents of rain flowing down the steep-sided volcanic slopes of Kahalawai have deeply eroded the volcanic rock, dissecting it into numerous deep valleys and canyons. Several of these erosion features are directed toward and terminate near the city of Lahaina, only twenty miles away, and one of the driest places on the island—a virtual desert—where only 0-8 inches of rain fall annually. It is also the oldest city on the Island and in the chain .
The larger south eastern part of the island (base of the “8” ) is formed from the emergence of Haleakala volcano (10,023 feet). The island is in the zone of the NE Trade Winds which bathe the island in near constant, moist pleasant and temperate sea winds.
Maui’s climate and rainfall amounts are heavily affected by the NE Trade Winds which provide a near continuous flow of semi tropical to tropical marine air masses over these lovely islands. Rainfall on Maui varies over the year— the summer and fall being the driest part of the year. Sea temperatures around the islands range in the high seventies Fahrenheit year round. In the well buffered marine environment, air temperatures do not change much annually. In Maui, sea temperatures range from 75 F to 80 F all year round, and have a direct influence on island air temperature.
Also rainfall varies in the extreme from one side of the island to the other. This fact is due to mountainous nature of Maui, the persistence of the NE Trade Winds and the high levels of moisture in the air of the north central Pacific Ocean. The windward side of the island may get 200 to 400 inches (20-30 feet)of rain each year, while the leeward (downwind side) may be a desert receiving only 0-8” per year. The reason for this is that as air is forced up and over a high mountain such as Haleakala and Kahalawai as the air is forced upward it cools, its moisture condenses into clouds, and precipitation falls to earth. This air is lower in moisture and as it descends on the leeward side of the mountains it heats up (by adiabatic rate of 5.5 F/1000 feet). Its relative humidity falls drastically. As a result of this (mountain) orographic effect, the leeward side of Maui, where Lahaina is located, is essentially a desert climate with less than ten inches of rain per year.
The vegetation to the east of the city, on the slopes of Kahalawai is dominated by various species of grass and brush. Most of this vegetation grows during the rainy winter and then dies during the hot dry summer. . See https://earth.app.goo.gl/SBb91N. Lahaina bypass.
The region along the northwest coast near Lahaina is in a naturally-dry desert area with just enough winter rain for grass and brush to grow in the wet season. But it dies back each year during the dry season. This area is prone to common grass and brush fires.
As would be expected, it is in the narrow belt of land in the desert area, close to the shore, where most urban development has taken place. Lahaina City is located in this area.
In addition, the geography of this developed area, limited by the sea shore and mountainous terrane permits only a narrow zone in which roads can serve this region. Although the modern Lahaina “by pass” does just that passes east of the city over higher land.
Typhoons and hurricanes normally pass close to the island chain. In August, of this year Hurricane Dora formed just southwest of the Hawaiian chain.
Furthermore, at the present time, the region of the east Pacific Ocean is experiencing El Nino weather. El Nino is a weather phenomenon which tends to increase hurricane development and intensity in the Pacific region. Hurricane Dora which passed several hundred miles south of the island chain generated winds in excess of 74 miles per hour which had an enormous effect on the wild fires on Maui.
In addition, a powerful high pressure center had developed just north of the chain. The high pressure produced a strong clockwise flow of air, while Dora was generating very strong counter-clockwise winds just to the south of the Hawaiian chain. The result was an “egg beater” atmospheric effect— which generated very strong north-easterly winds with Maui near its center. Winds associated with Dora were clocked at over 60 miles per hour (100km per hour) just east of the islands.
The “twin mountain” profile of Maui presented to these powerful storm winds tended channel the air flow between two high mountains of Mauna Kahalawai and Haleakala. Wind speeds would have increased considerably in this region as it ws forced though the mountqin pass. This contributed heavily to inrease wind speeds in Lahania.
In addition, strong winds surging up and over Mouna Kahalawai then down onto the leeward side of that mountain were likely channelled into the canyons and deep valleys of Kahalawai’s heavily eroded west slopes. In this confined environment wind speed may have intensified as well. In addition, as the air descended from elevation to the sea level, it heated by the dry adiabatic lapse rate (5.5 F/1000 ft). Air heated in such a manner loses moisture and as temperature rises, its relative humidity falls to very low levels. These atmospheric effects combined to generate exceptionally hot, dry high speed winds over Lahania. The near perfect circumstances for a tragic fire storm.
Thus storm winds flowing down slope from near six thousand feet to sea level and being channeled by the erosion gullies on the west slopes of Kahalawai were likely flowing at speeds well over 60 miles per hour and were extremely hot and dry as they streamed toward Lahaina.
Winds of this speed and force can easily down electric utility poles. As these fall wires break and short out creating sparks which generate fires. The fires were fanned and driven westward by high winds, and very hot dry air to form the awful conflagration that incinerated the city. Many fires on Maui may have been initiated this way.
In the event lf high speed, dry hot winds almost any outdoor fires of any kind, a tossed cigarette, a barbecue fire, or human carelessness can flare up info a blaze that spreads and quickly becomes a conflagration.
The tragedy on Maui is a perfect storm of weather and geographic circumstances having little or nothing to do with climate change.
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