Evaluating World Energy Consumption and Human Populations
We each consume about 13 barrel of oil (energy equivalent) per year per person. Almost all of that energy produces greenhouse gases which cause “rechuffement” or global heating. Each year the human population grows at about 1% or (in 2023) an addition OF @ 83,000,000 people each requiring consumption of 13 barrels of oil equivalent for each new arrival. It is the population growth which threatens human survival —.
Each year we burn 13 x 83,000,000 = 249,000,000 MORE barrels of oil equivalent over the last year, just as a result of human reproduction. All of our present efforts to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere will come to naught if we do not address the massive and unsustainable population explosion. Robert Malthus (1798) was right, population growth increases exponentially and will (and is) outstripping the Earth’s ability to absorb the carbon waste we generate ( which causes global heating). Malthus detractors did not envision the threat of global heating as an additional impact on the world’s ability to provide adequate energy, space, food, housing and other amenities for a sustainable standard of living. They denigrated Malthus claiming that “technology” would come to the rescue and keep up with the exponentially growing populations. They had no idea that technology itself could be a threat —more machines buring more fuel to create more food and more housing—only generates more carbon that causes more overheating of the atmosphere—which ….oh you know the rest. Food production, energy use, etcetera were envisioned as growing only linearly—but “le rechauffement climatique” changes that equation too.
If we permit population to grow at the present rate —future survivors, if there are any, in several decades, will be living at standards much reduced from the present…Our efforts at reducing carbon emissions are commendable, but will not be able to offset the impact of population growth.
What is annual global energy consumption? Annul Global Energy Consumption is the combined energy use of all households, individuals, industries, governments, and all sectors of the economy and society. Individuals use energy to heat their homes, power their automobiles, etc. etc. Energy is used to mine minerals, cut forests, build roads, pave highways, recycle products, transport goods, grow foods, freeze, package and refrigerate food and dispose of wastes. Even the drab sidewalks on a city street are the result of an enormous input of energy from mining and transporting the sand and limestone to mixing concrete to transporting and then mixing, building forms, pouring for which we are all in some way responsible. .
So how much energy do we all use annually?
The World Counts ( www @ theworldcounts.com) estimates that annual global energy consumption is 580 million terra joules. That is equal to 580 million trillion joules which is equivalent to about 13,865 million tons of oil equivalent. The “World Counts” claims that since 2000, “global energy consumption has increased by about one third and is projected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future.” They predict that by 2040 global energy consumption will reach 740 million terra joules and at 2050 900 million terra joules. The World Counts illustrates how much this huge consumption level of energy is by relating the flight of a Boeing 737 ( which consumes one terra joule to cross the Atlantic) and to the Hiroshima nuclear explosion to which global annual consumption corresponds to one Hiroshima explosion every four seconds.
The annual increase in energy consumption is of course tied to how many of us receiving and being served by those consumers of energy.
13,865 million tons of oil equivalent is used each year…much of that is of course in form of coal, gas, oil, other fossil fuels, wood and recyclables.. thus in 2023, 8 billion of us humans used almost 14 million tons of oil equivalent.
14,000 million tons of oil equivalent (OE ) divided by 8 billion human on Earth
14,000,000,000 t of oil e /8,000,000,000 humans= 1.75 tons/ person
1 metric ton oil = 7.46 bbl 1.75 tons of Oil equiv. x 7.46 = 13 “bbl” Each person on Earth consumes 13 bbl of oil equivalent or
13 barrels of oil equivalent per person per year
Each year the world population grows by about 1% of 8.3 billion = about 83 million people per year.
Thus each year we assuming average population growth and continued use of energy as we are at present we will increase our use of energy by
83,000,000,000 new population x 1.75 tons of oil equivalent use per person per year,
or 145 million tons of oil equivalent or
145million tons x 7.46 = 619 million barrels of oil equivalent per year each year year over year.
Thus based on population growth alone we are using the equivalent of 619 million more barrels of oil equivalent each year.
An established estimate is that each bbl of oil burned produces about 0.43 metric tons of carbon .
Thus the 619 million bbl per year from population growth alone would generate 619 x 0.43= an additional 266 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year year over year. Canada, as a nation devoted to reduced carbon emissions reduced its total to 670 million tons of carbon in 2020 a good year of low industrial activity. Much of that effort was offset by simple global population growth.
37 billion metric tons are added to atmosphere each year (as of 2021)
266,000,000/ 37,000,000,000 = 266/37,000 or 0.007 or just about
1/10 of one percent. Even if we
Another analysis
World energy Consuption in 2019 = 418 exajoules /year
418,000,000,000,000,000,000 joules.
1 exajoule = 1x10-18th BTU (one times ten to the eighteenth)
Energy Consumption World = 418 x 10-18th BTU/ year
1bbl oil = 5,800,000BTU
TO CHANGE TO BBL OF OIL EQUIVALENT
418 10-18 BTU/YEAR—-DIVIDED BY —5.8 X 10-6 BTU/BBL =
418/5.8 = 72 X 10-12th or 7.2 x 10-13th bbl of oil equivalent
BBL of oil equivalent consumed per year in 2019 =7.2 x 10-13 bbl of oil per year
7.2 x10-13 bbl of oil equivalent consumed in 2019 by world.
But per person consumption
72 x 10-12 bbl per year / 8.3 x10 -9 world population = 8.7 x10-3 bbl of oil equivalent per person per year.
8,700 bbl of oil per person per year
Another analysis Annual Global energy consumption @ 13,865 million tons of oil equivalent See “The World Counts”
14,000 million metric tons of oil equivalent
14,000,000,000 M tons of oil equivalent or 14 x 10-9
Used by 8.3 billion humans
Or 8,300,000,000 or 8.3 x10-9
14x 10-9 / 8.3 x10-9 = 1.7 metric tons of oil equivalent/ person per year
One metric ton of oil = ? Bbl of oil
7.46 bbl of oil = one metric ton of oil
1.7 tons x 7.46 bbl/ton = 12.68 or @ 13 bbl of oil equivalent per person per year.
To
envision this energy consuption. The oil equivalent is an easy way to envision how much wnergey we aall use.
No comments:
Post a Comment