DUMB STUFF IN SAUDI ARBIA (AND DC)

HALF OF SAUDI OIL PRODUCTION KNOCKED OUT BY HOUTHIS DRONE ATTACKS

On Saturday (September 14, 2019) a fiery drone attack by Yemeni rebel forces knocked out 50% of Saudi Arabian (SA) oil production.  The Saudis produce each day about 10% (@10 million bbls) of the world’s oil.  The resulting short-fall will result in a steep rise of world oil prices.  With global production of petroleum at what is called “peak oil”( i.e. production has reached its maximum extraction rate) and production of oil is just about equal to its global demand.    This means that with this delicate balance between production and consumption even small changes in supply are reflected in large price fluctuations.  In the present crisis, due to a loss of 5% SA oil, the global supply is now down by that amount and oil prices will likely climb steeply—at least for the short term, until the Saudis snuff out the fires and repair damaged infrastructure.  However, of even more concern is the damage to investor confidence in the stability of the world’s oil supply.  If producers have to include the possibility of substantial loss (as by drone attacks) into their calculation prices could remain high.   The SA oil fields could be brought back on line but it is the confidence of oil producers and investors that is not as easily repaired.

The surprisingly sophisticated and coordinated Houthis attack, by armed drones, underscored another fact—that in the modern age of computerized military technology,  it may not be as easy as it was in the past to protect vital global infrastructure.  That uncertainty is disturbing.  The awful and deadly stealth-technology of armed drones —developed by the USA—and used, perhaps too much and too carelessly around the Middle East —has been copied and reproduced for indiscriminate mass sale  by many nations.  Drones are now even sold as toys by Walmart!  It is no big technological challenge for even those in poor nations to buy these devices then enlarge and arm them.  

But there is another truism here to critique.  It is “dumb stuff” for national leaders to delude themselves and their constituents into thinking that they can use massive military casually and escape  — with complete impunity.   Newton’s Third Law of physics applies here in diplomacy and foreign policy  as well as in science—“for every action their there is a reaction of opposite and equal force”.   Massive military expenditures, expensive foreign bases, millions of men in uniform  and a high tech Air Force can not always fully protect a foolishly aggressive nation, too eager to throw its military weight around, from terroristic reprisal.  The Saudis bombed Yemen mercilessly, the Yemenis have managed to point out to the SA royals that those actions were costly and will remain so in the future.

It is also clear that conducting a brutal air war of choice  attempting regime change in Yemen—is dumb stuff.  Unhappy with the successful revolt of the Houthis who replaced a pro-SA government in neighboring Yemen the Saudi Prince engaged in dumb stuff.  The SA campaign has killed tens of thousands of civilians by aerial bombing.  They have enforcied a shipping embargo which resulted in famine and outbreaks of cholera which have killed 50,000 or more in this poorest of the poor desert country of 13 million which historically suffers from chronic food shortages.  SA has been pilloried by world leaders for the brutality of its aerial campaign.  The US Senate, aghast at the carnage and suffering in Yemen, has passed a bill aimed at halting US involvement in aiding the Saudis.  But to no avail.   Dumb stuff continues.   The Saudis air war campaign has generated a reaction—in the form of this latest attack on their oil fields.  The air war has come back to bite them in their white-linen draped behinds.  Unfortunately, the dumb stuff of the Saudis and those in DC who support them—will be felt all around the globe in higher oil prices and long term investor jitters.

Perhaps in the future wiser leaders will be more circumspect about using military might casually and unnecessarily—thinking always that there will be the inevitable  “third law” reaction to their aggression. Ultimately they will have to answer: Was the military effort worth the inevitable response?

The Saudi leadership with their backsides draped in  bloodied white linen skirts must realize now that  in this case of Yemen it would have been wiser to permit the Yemenis to decide on their own  who governs them..