SUPPORT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE FROM DOWN UNDER

FOR CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS

We can all agree that our world is experiencing a period of climate change.  What some disagree on is the question of the cause of this phenomenon.  Almost the entire science community is in full agreement that climate change or weather intensification (some use the easily misconstrued term “global warming”)  is the result of human generated changes to our atmosphere (and oceans).  This hypothesis posits the  over the latter half of the last century and into the present, humans have altered (and continue to alter) the atmosphere by dumping vast quantities of carbon dioxide gas, the waste product of burning fossil fuels (oil gas, and coal) into the atmosphere.  This gas (and some others) acts as a “blanket” on the earth’s surface to hold heat that would normally radiate away into space.  (Greenhouse effect). The result is a warmer more energized atmosphere. Atmospheric energy or heat is dissipated by air movements (winds) and by storms (clouds, precipitation). The heat can warm the oceans and melt the icecaps contributing to coastal flooding.  Some places have and will continue to experience higher temperatures, droughts, while others may expect more rain and snow. Yes snow can be the result of global warming.  The higher energy content of the atmosphere can be expected to contribute to an intensification of all weather phenomena.  

But some observers persist in claiming that the changes that we are observing in the weather (and climate) are simply the result of natural fluctuations in atmospheric phenomena  which have occurred in the past. Many of these latter (climate change denier) folks are connected to or  swayed by arguments proffered by the powerful fossil energy interests.  These firms have a right to express their opinion—but we must keep in mind that they have a vested interest in selling their product

For many of us the arguments pro and con are confusing and seem too technical.  It should not be so.  The idea is simple: our industrial economies have been taking carbon out of the ground (fossil carbon) in the form of coal, oil and gas and burning it in the atmosphere (i.e. combining it with oxygen) and producing carbon dioxide.  The result of this chemical reaction and dumping the waste CO2 is that the concentration of carbon dioxide  in the atmosphere has been increasing steadily since at least the early part of the last century. 

It should be plain that there is a connection: higher carbon dioxide equals more “heat blanket effect” (or greenhouse effect) and that equates to  higher air temperatures and more intense weather phenomena—more and more intense and damaging tornadoes , more hurricanes, more rain, more snow more droughts, more and hotter heat waves, etc. etc..  

But I recently came across a pair of graphs —one from distant and isolated Australia—that seem to illustrate the connection between fossil fuel use and higher atmospheric temperatures with clarity. 

(Note graphs in Fig 1 and 2 in original document were not printed  in this blog edition. You may see them by following source informaiotn noted below)

Figure 1.  Australian Average temperature anomalies 1910-2009. After Wikipedia, Australian Climate . See Climate of Australia, Wikipedia, global warming  Www.en.m..Wikipedia.org/ global warming

Why pick Australia? Australia is a small continent located in the Southern Hemisphere surrounded by the polar region by the Southern Ocean, It is not subject to the flows of dry cold polar (arctic) air which sweeps down onto North America and Europe during the winter season. As a result winters are relatively mild in Australia and the weather and climate have less contrasts between the seasons.  Thus its changes in temperature over the period indicated show less fluctuations and may be more representative of the global patterns

To prepare the graph in Figure 1. Australian meteorologists calculated the average Australian temperatures for a characteristic period they defined as the years 1961 to 1990.  Then using that number as the “mean or typical temperature” they calculated the departure from that number for the temperature data which had been collected from 1910 to 2009. Each little blue dot represents the departure or anomaly from the “average” or representative  1961-1990 data.  Thus for the 1910 data the anomalies ranged from about -0.7 deg C to -0.2 deg C.  While in the 1980 data anomalies of approximately 0.1 C to 0.7C.  In addition the analysts added a form of moving average (the red line) or mean loess (lowess) which in a sense summarizes and smooths out the data points to make the trend in the data more easily viewed.

It is clear that however you look at the chart there is a distinctive and sharp break in the data points occurring at approximately the 1950s. In this period both the “high” temperature anomalies and the “low” temperature anomalies rise from left to right on the chart.    Clearly the air was warming according to these data. 

But what was happening globally during this 1950-1960s period?  Was there some change in the global consumption of our fossil fuels? 

(Note graphs in Fig 1 and 2 in original document were not printed  in this blog edition. You may see them by following source informaiotn noted below) 

The Figure 2 graph (below) illustrates the global consumption of fossil fuels  from 1800 to 2016. The vertical (y) scale is Terrawatt-hours—a measure of power (equal to 114 megawatts sustained for one year).  Note that by 1950 the consumption of coal, oil and gas increase sharply.  Coal (having been steady from about 1900 onward) increases, but it is oil consumption which increases most rapidly during this period, while natural gas use increases more gradually,

 In 1950 coal, oil,  and gas were being consumed to the tune of  about 20,000 TWh of power, annually but in the next two and a half decades fossil fuel consumption surges upward by a factor of four over the next 25 years to about 80,000 TWh of power annually or roughly and increase of 400% over a period of only two and a half decades. That increase in the 

Figure 2.  Global fossil Fuel Consumption. Source Vacaville Smil (2017) downloaded (May 25, 2019) from “Fossil Fuels” Ritchie and Roser (no date)

consumption of fossil fuels continued into the present century and is still  rising.  By the turn of the century in 2000 consumption had reached  to well over 120,000TWh of power or more than 600% increase over the 1950 consumption level.  

Correlation is not causation.  But the correspondence of time periods of these events, the sharp inflection points on the graphs and other data very strongly indicate a clear connection between fossil fuel consumption and increases in atmospheric temperatures in Australia that is impossible to ignore.    

Faced with these data most of us would be forced to conclude that it is very likely that the climate change we observe is directly related to the huge amounts of fossil carbon our industries and populations use to fuel their businesses and life styles.  The consequences of ignoring the problem may be catastrophic. 

References

1. “Fossil Fuels” by Hanna Ritchie and Max Roser, See: ourwordlindata.org. Downloaded May 25, 2019

2. “Climate of Australia”  Wikipedia 

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